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The Ups and Downs of Arbitrage Betting and Trading

No need to wait for the final whistle.

There is zero chance that arbitrageurs will lose money from the particular game. Here is why:

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I respect your privacy

Let me tell you my short story about when I finally decided to quit arbitrage betting.

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Don’t dig into arbitrage betting before reading of the disadvantages

As I was getting really tired the past few weeks, surfing around looking for sure bets as they are commonly known, I had found a really generous one at a golf event. What a relief! My bets were both accepted and I just had to wait for the game’s result before I got paid. Thus, I think new arbitrageurs can be profitable even today.

By the time arbitrageurs have placed their bets, their profit is guaranteed.

WRITTEN BY

Jim Makos

By advantage gambling and investing with real money online, I put my money where my mouth is. Some still make a lot of money. What’s that at Betfair? A third possible outcome you say?

As quickly as possible, I had my Excel spreadsheet calculate the stakes and I submitted my bets concurrently at the two betting operators. Moving money around does not only mean extra commissions with banks, but may also arise suspicions.

And last but not least, you can still lose big chunks of money if you don’t pay close attention when placing your arbitrage bets.

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I myself haven’t spent more than a month taking advantage of fluctuating odds and prices when trying out arbitrage. I could let the specific bets as is and make a profit, unless the games ends a draw. Noticed the word “almost”? That is because you still stand to lose some money. I also write about my success or failure and run a small business.

Two golfers were competing at a golf course, when I noticed the divergence of the betting odds between Betfair and another online bookmaker. Yes, so quick that I had to write it twice for emphasis!

While there are services, which let you know when there is an arbitrage opportunity, they come at a cost. And I have heard that by the time you get to hear of that, it’s already too late.

Many bookmakers do not welcome bettors, who follow an arbitrage betting pattern. You can’t expect the results to even out among the bookmakers. That was almost 10 years ago! So, yes, I am far from the arbitrage expert you were expecting to be talking here. Arbitrage trading is likewise an almost risk-free way of trading any kind of financial instrument. That was my first (and last) bet on a golf game.

I spent the following 5 minutes deciding how to react. Because that is when I was going to lose a hefty amount of my total bankroll! As I am not used to gamble with my money (I know, it sounds peculiar, but by the time gambling becomes an investing, you stop gambling with your money), I reluctantly gave away some of my future profits to cover the losses of a likely draw.

Arbitrage betting is an almost risk-free way of betting on sports. And that is not the worst thing it can happen in arbitrage.

The reason I am talking today about arbitrage, is an email I received from a visitor of my gambling blog. And no, the game did not end a draw but it still was a great lesson for me. A lesson that made me withdraw all of my funds from all the bookmakers, except Betfair. Worst case scenario? To confiscate your money. Keep your capital safe for when you are more experienced.

A DRAW?

Of course, my bets now resulted to a loss, no matter the final outcome of the golf game. Much like arbitrage bettors are looking at sports events, arbitrage traders do the same when trading stocks, forex, bonds, commodities, derivatives and other financial instruments, looking at the markets worldwide.

People usually focus on the bright side of any investment, like in arbitrage betting or trading. Because I was going to get paid for sure, I had just bet on both golfers.

But let’s just start from the advantages of arbitrage betting.

If you are going to give arbitrage a shot after all, be very careful and begin betting or trading small. These accounts also need sufficient funding. Usually the ROI of a sure bet is about 1 to 2%, although you may stand lucky occasionally and find a 4 or 5% gold mine!

You must be quick to find arbitrage bets.

You must be super quick to find arbitrage bets. Yes, that’s happened before.

An arbitrageur has to open accounts with several betting or trading companies. And two months later I began sports trading, leaving my arbitrage betting days behind.

These advantages apply as well to arbitrage trading. This funding will probably max out your credit card(s).

Constant money moving. At one point, an account of yours will be full of money, while the rest will be depleted. Their sole worry is just how much money they can make but they neglect the fact that they can also lose money, even in this advertised as risk-free investment.

In my case the guaranteed profit was even better than that!. Yet, my little experience has taught be enough to recommend anyone against arbitrage betting or trading. That is because they have bet on every possible outcome of the game.

Given the infinite number of sports events around the globe, new opportunities for arbitrage betting will constantly arise, especially as more and more people are introduced to betting or gambling in general.

And that is when the emotion of relief converts into panic in a matter of nanoseconds!

Oh, wait. Lessons can come cheap. They are considering a career in arbitrage trading in particular.

People have made a lot of money in arbitrage. As a result, they may limit the stakes they are accepting from you or even forbid you to continue betting with them


Posted by admin on September 6th, 2016 :: Filed under sports arbitrage

Please, Someone, Cast Him In A Science Fiction Movie

So this stands out, in a way, as being: “Wow, this is a rarity.”

Somebody, please cast Richard Gere in a science-fiction movie! Sure, it’s hardly the first genre that comes to mind when you think of the suave, intellectual star of “Pretty Woman” and “An Officer and a Gentleman,” but he says he’s game. So I liked that gray area of someone like that, and adding that to the financial thing, to me, was the perfect storm of a character for two hours. I kept saying the line wrong. But he’s not as relevant anymore. And that’s what I liked about it.

So that was a surprise?

The degree that that has been embraced universally, the whole planet …

That was my first date. It’s creepy. Horrible, horrible decision. You can contact him directly on Twitter.

That’s true. They’re working on human-rights stuff, they’re working on health stuff, they’re working on civil-rights stuff. And either it doesn’t fit the story or it’s written all wrong or something, and you get a sense that there’s something that’s not really happening. But sci-fi? Yes. The only vaguely sci-fi thing I did was “Mothman Prophecies.” Not a terrible movie. But you’d never see it in the film.

I was worried this movie was going down that Bernie Madoff-type road, but that’s not what this is at all. And you’re not exaggerating.

No! I lived with that! And I’m proud of it. I’ve worked in Washington now for almost 30 years. At all. He’s trying to make everything right while not going to jail, which seems reasonable. But sci-fi is something that interests me a lot, and that’s one of the genres that, for whatever reason, I haven’t been in.

So Michael Fassbender does a movie like “Shame” and that leads to something like “Prometheus.” I feel like you never went down the sci-fi or action-movie role. But you’ll never see it in the film. So I think we did achieve that in places in that movie. He broke the law in a big way, but it’s understandable. And that’s more like this character. Everybody does. And Ted Kennedy was one of the most responsible Senators that we’ve ever had. Morgan …

Yeah. But, in the end, they were in the realm of rational business. Terry Malick called me up in my hotel in L.A. That’s why you’re rooting for him. They really are. It’s the hubris of, “I can’t lose. So I’ve never thought about the marketplace at all, honestly. This isn’t a festival movie.

My favorite line in “Arbitrage” is when Robert asks, “What’s an Applebee’s?”

[Laughs] Do you want to know the truth? I didn’t know what it was. Nick and I made a point of that because, when we made the movie, it was so much on everyone’s mind — this was a year and four months ago.

I liked it because when I first read the script it resonated with Bernie Madoff and Ted Kennedy … And if I do, I’m going to fix it because I’m a lord of the universe.”

And then the car accident that results in the death of his girlfriend happens. And I think that’s why, in a way, we root for this guy and we identify with him. I certainly have had very few times, but I’ve had times where an actor and I did not fit. Whether it would communicate to other people? I didn’t have a clue. But we’ll have to wait to see him in a galaxy far, far away, because right now he’s promoting “Arbitrage,” out Friday, in which he stars as Robert Miller, an über-wealthy hedge-fund executive frantically trying to keep the pieces of his complicated life from falling apart. The guys who make big bets and win. What do you do in that situation?

Well, let’s assume he didn’t mean to do any of it.

The topic came up during a discussion of “Star Wars,” which — hard as it may be to picture — Gere saw in theaters back in 1977. It’s not a festival movie by design. not a great movie.

Ahead, Gere explains why his character isn’t really like Bernie Madoff, remembers watching “Pretty Woman” with Julia Roberts and singles out the movie from his past that still means the most to him.

So you’re feeling, “I don’t know about this”?

Yeah. The scene in the park with my daughter, where I explain to her what happened — I certainly spin it in my favor. The mix of people and story, and the way Garry Marshall was able to kind of corral it within his worldview, felt really good. And who wouldn’t want to see the man who taught Julia Roberts how to be classy shoot lasers at an invading army of mutants?

After the accident, Robert flees the scene. “The Hoax” is one of my favorite movies that I’ve made, and very few people have seen it.

The CEO of J.P. We all make bad decisions.

For some reason, I can’t picture you in a theater enjoying “Star Wars.”

I remember it very well! I remember sitting there at an early showing of “Star Wars,” and the first time that the going-at-light-speed thing happened — which was new; now it seems silly — that was like, “Whoa!” I remember that very well.

But it was there.

It was there, but that’s one of the bizarre things about this. The first feature from writer-director Nicholas Jarecki, “Arbitrage” also stars Susan Sarandon as Miller’s wife, Brit Marling as his daughter, Tim Roth as a hard-boiled police detective on his trail and Nate Parker as a family friend who pays a heavy price for helping Miller in his hour of need. We were carried away by the story, watching it.

It’s creepy, though.

It’s creepy. This person doesn’t work.. Chappaquiddick. This is like “Coriolanus” or something — “Richard II.” Big characters. Unfortunately, the companies that make movies don’t make these anymore. The Jamie Dimons of the world are more relevant. The best people were trained in his office, came through the stuff he was pushing and working on his entire life. I was 15 and had to sneak in by buying a ticket to “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” instead.

[Laughs] How did the date go?

Am I a bad person because I’m rooting for him to succeed?

No.

Maybe that’s for the best.

I’ve never conceptualized a career.

**SPOILER ALERT: Skip the next three questions and answers if you don’t want to know about a key plot point that happens early in the movie.**

What movie was most important to your career? “An Officer and a Gentleman” or “Pretty Woman”? Or maybe “American Gigolo”?

It was the first one, for me. Not tricky creepy, but sick creepy. I remember Julia and I saw it together in a preview and we were sitting next to one another laughing and moved with everybody else. Lasse Hallström is, too. These other things, I don’t really think about it, to tell you the truth.

Kirsten Dunst, Lizzy Caplan and Isla Fisher star as the three worst bridesmaids this side of Kristen Wiig in “Bachelorette.” Based on the stage play by director and writer Leslye Headland, the hilarious film debuted on video on demand and iTunes in early August and earned nearly $500,000 during its first weekend.

Can you give an example?

No. There’s some things in that that are … I’ve never — those few instances, it didn’t show up on film.

“Arbitrage” played at Sundance and didn’t come out of the festival with the hype of something like “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” Can too much festival hype be a bad thing?

Well, you know, that was a festival movie. The things he does are human. So it’s just really well-made on all levels: It’s well-conceived, well-written, well-acted, well-shot, scored. On a human level, who would just run away from that situation? How many people would have just run away? Very few.

But there’s already a lot going on.

I think it took you off of that one track that, maybe, you felt like, “I know this very well.” You don’t see it coming.

It went well, so thank you. It’s early in the film, but we don’t see that coming. But he made one horrible decision. When Lasse called me up and said, “Look, I’m involved with this movie,” I said, “I read that script.” And my first thought was, No, it’s not for me. And I said, “OK, let’s just do it head-on.” And we talked a little bit about him, [how] he’s a sociopath, he’s crazy. He just lost the bet. The best people working in Washington came through his office. I said, “Applesbee? “Applebee’s? What is it?”

Mike Ryan is senior entertainment writer for The Huffington Post. A certain blockage comes up. It was made with independent money; it didn’t have a distributor when we made it. Not the ones who Ponzi scheme and lie. and said, “Let’s make this movie.” It’s “Days of Heaven.” That, to me — it didn’t have anything to do with anyone else; it had to do with me. But I’m really proud of that movie. It’s large compromises with ethics and morality the guy does, but it’s all within the realm we all do. And then I read it and thought, What was I thinking? This is perfect.

When you’re filming a movie like this, can you tell if things are going pretty well? Or even on “Pretty Woman” or “Unfaithful,” do you feel, “People are going to like this”?

“Pretty Woman,” yes. I like the movie. This is a movie with an independent distributor. And I wanted to be genuinely creepy. We used to have a line where I talked about Madoff. That script came to me about two or three years before, and I read it and said, “This isn’t for me.” I didn’t get it. We all shave taxes — white lies to our wives and lovers. You don’t get along.

‘Bachelorette’ (Sept. None of us did.

When you were coming up as an actor, what movies did you see? Did you see “Star Wars” with everyone else in 1977?

Sure.

He does some terrible things.

Yeah, but we all do.

Well, he’s not a sociopath — that’s a different universe. Except for maybe “The Jackal.” Did that interest you?

The action thing was not an interest to me. Do you ever feel a film is not going well?

Usually, what happens is you’ve gone over the script a million times and you go in really feeling confident about your script, [but then] you’re shooting and you realize that this scene doesn’t work. It’s the guys who are winners. What’s the fault? These are Shakespearean characters. He made a big bet and he lost. A studio picture. It’s a movie that Sidney Lumet would have made in the 70s. And either I wasn’t open to it in the moment or, who knows? A movie like that, it was just timing of when a script comes. But that was a moment where there are a lot of auditions and trying to put people together to make that cast work — but when he asked me to make the movie, I realized that my world was going in that direction of making movies. 7)

Around the era when you were doing “American Gigolo” and “An Officer and a Gentleman,” nothing like that came up?

This comes down to scripts, you know? There are good version, there are bad versions


Posted by admin on September 5th, 2016 :: Filed under sports arbitrage

How baseball learned to stop worrying and love StubHub

The Indians last won a World Series way back in 1948.

Bowman acknowledged that at least some of the credit for teams selling a record number of tickets again this year is due to the rapid growth of online ticket resales on StubHub and similar services.

Baseball ticket sales on StubHub soared, and the site is now on pace to sell 5 million tickets this year alone, after selling a total of 5 million tickets in its first six years of existence.

Some will look at the prices that World Series tickets are already going for on StubHub and cry that this makes it tough for the average fan to afford tickets.

If the Cubs meet the Boston Red Sox in the series this year, it might drive prices to unprecedented levels (though I have my doubts they’ll ever reach the $75,000 listing price of that one optimistic seller).

“We’re in the secondary market whether we embraced it or not,” he said. If you have a Yankees-Cubs series, it will help the pricing and sales volume.”

The full effect of the partnership will not begin until next year, but already in the last two months of the season, MLB.com started providing links to StubHub on team pages on the MLB.com as well as at individual team sites that fans go to when they’re looking to buy tickets.

“Without question, the increasing knowledge that there is a vibrant, safe, legal liquid market for the tickets encourages our fans to buy season ticket packages, since they know they can recoup some of those costs.”

As recently as a year ago, teams such as the Yankees were going to war with their best customers, pulling renewal and postseason ticket rights from their season and partial-season ticket holders if they were caught reselling their tickets. Numerous studies have shown ticket resale prices drop once anti-scalping laws disappear.

Both teams have large fan bases, small stadiums and a history of postseason frustration that has created pent-up demand for a chance to see their team win the series. If anything, they drove ticket prices higher by limiting supply as the laws made some potential sellers reluctant to put tickets up for sale. Some tickets sold for as little as $22.

So even though few can afford to shell out $75,000 to root, root, root for their home (or road) team in the playoffs, having an open secondary market for ticket sales makes it less likely that anybody will ever have to pay such a high price in the first place. Top of page

Chicago Cubs fans flocked to Phoenix this week, drawn by significantly lower prices for tickets to the team’s first two playoff games against the Arizona Diamondbacks than they could find for tickets to games 3 and 4 back in the Windy City .

A pair of seats five rows behind the first base dugout at Wrigley for one World Series game have already sold for $6,000 each, already topping the highest price for a ticket sold on StubHub to last year’s World Series– $5,883 each for four seats in row B behind home plate for Game 3 in St. While the Red Sox won a championship in 2004, the Cubs haven’t been to the series since 1945 and haven’t won in nearly a century.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Think of it as playoff ticket arbitrage.

“Even if it was the Rockies versus the Indians, those markets will come alive,” he said. So about 11.3 percent of the Arizona tickets being purchased on StubHub were going to Illinois buyers, while only 0.5 percent of the Wrigley tickets were being sold to fans from Arizona.

It also helps that this year, Major League Baseball and more and more states around the country are finally acknowledging that it is in everyone’s best interest to have a true transparent secondary market for ticket sales.

StubHub, the leading online ticket resale service, reports the average price of a ticket being sold on its site for games at Chase Field in Phoenix was $105. So in August, MLB reached a ground-breaking sponsorship agreement with StubHub, which is a unit of eBay (Charts, Fortune 500).

And while Cubs fans couldn’t be happy with the results of the games they saw in the Valley of the Sun, (the Cubs lost both games and are one game way from being eliminated in the series), this is the way that markets are supposed to work — willing sellers setting the price they want to attract willing buyers.

And if the Cubs rally and somehow make it to the World Series, we are likely to see even higher prices. Teams mistakenly believed that the secondary market was competition for their own ticket sales.

But Bob Bowman, the CEO of MLB Advance Media, the arm of the sport that runs MLB.com, said most teams have come to the realization that the secondary market is a benefit, not a blow.

But back at on the Northside of Chicago at the friendly, but pricey confines of Wrigley Field, a larger fan base and more limited supply of tickets had driven the average resale price up to $334, with some tickets selling for as much as $2,177, and standing room tickets going for $100.

The deal with baseball was beneficial enough to StubHub that it gave the sport something it never granted other teams or sports in its sponsorship deals — a cut of the 25 percent combined commission that StubHub gets from the buyer and seller when a ticket is sold.

But the fans paying those insane prices would have found a ticket broker to buy from in the past. One seller is already listing a pair of tickets for $75,000 each.

The difference made it worth it for Cubs fans to catch a plane rather than the Chicago L to a game, especially if they could cash in frequent flyer miles. The fact that there are services like StubHub only increases the supply of tickets that can be sold on the secondary market, thus lowering the price.

The laws were among the most worthless on the books. Louis.

“The dynamics for a Cubs-Red Sox World Series is something that the secondary market has never seen before,” said Greg Bettinelli, senior director of business development for StubHub. The clubs don’t benefit from tickets in the drawer.”

In addition, New York this year joined states such as Florida and Illinois in dropping the so-called anti-scalping laws that attempted to prohibit the resale of tickets for more than a nominal increase over face value.

But Bettinelli said that he really doesn’t see a bad World Series match-up.. “Very few of either teams’ fans have ever seen them win a World Series.” In fact, Colorado, which just joined the league in 1993 has never been to a World Series; this is only the second time the team has made it to the playoffs. “There’s no one who can go to all 81 games. “But it might not be the most profitable for us, because of the limited supply of tickets for sale


Posted by admin on September 4th, 2016 :: Filed under sports arbitrage