khurramvirani.com

10 tips: Form study (Horse racing)

Once its rating is back to a suitable mark, look for a horse running with conditions to suit for the first time in a while

Your form study shows you that a horse has failed to make the frame on all of its 8 runs on Soft ground, so is it a safe assumption to say that it cannot win on Soft ground today? The answer seems to be probably not of course, but what if all of those runs came when the horse was badly handicapped or the horse was running over an inappropriate trip? Did those earlier runs on Soft ground come in the horse’s early career; is it possible the horse has strengthened up since then? It is very dangerous to assume you can discount a horse from calculations on one parameter, without checking out the facts thoroughly.

Given the first two points it comes as no surprise to find that 4 yo races where there is plenty of form to study are usually far more reliable from a form perspective. Ratings systems do have some merit in older runner races, but are relatively pointless in 2 yo and early season 3 yo races. It is sometimes possible to win with just a summary curse of the formbook, but if you want to obtain consistent results over the long term then it is necessary to become a Form Student. . If the win was achieved ina 2 or 3 yo only race there will almost certainly be unexposed runners who had not reached the peak of their ability.

If you are going to bet on 2yos rather than relying on the formbook, it would be better to concentrate your efforts on Trainers who do well with debutants and those who do well 2nd time out. A young horse having his first race may never have traveled in a horse box before and the racecourse experience can spook an experienced horse that alone one experiencing the sights and sounds of a big crowd.

Never discount a lack of form.

Avoid ratings systems

10 tips: Understanding Form study.

A runner in a Class 4 Handicap may have won in a Class 2 Handicap, but how long ago was the win, are the horse’s best days behind him? Also, if it was say a 0-105 Handicap, what rating was the top rated horse? If the top rated horse was only 90, effectively it is a Class 3 Handicap and not a Class 2. Are his string in decent form, has he had runners in this race before, were they fancied, are there any similarities between runners who have done well in the past? Has the trainer won a couple of previous renewals of the race with decent priced winners? Trainers like Gary Moore and Ian Balding like to have runners at their local tracks.

Carrying on from the previous point, look for a well handicapped horse that has been running over a different trip or on unsuitable ground when it was poorly handicapped. Access to a decent progeny database is a useful tool on extremes of going.

Conclusion:

Never assume.

Look for well Handicapped runners.

Ratings systems such asTurftrax take several known factors (28 in the case of Turftrax) and crunch them through a computer to come up with a top rated runner, which more often than not, is not surprisingly the favourite.

Form study can be profitable, but it is often misleading and difficult to read, like anything else in life, the more seriously you study it, the better the results.

Horses are not machines, they cannot tell a computer if they are injured or unwell or just not in the mood for a 3 mile slog in the mud today. Have a look at the form of the Classy win, has it worked out or did it prove to be a weak race for the grade?

Avoid Juvenile races.

Be wary of freak results

Concentrate on Older horses.

Be Wary of races with unexposed 3 yo runners entered.

Runners returning from a long break, especially 2 and 3 yos, have the ability to show drastic improvement on what they have previously shown on the book. It should therefore come as no surprise that the youngsters are skittish and can use up a lot of nervous energy before their debut race. If a horse wins a race as a 2 yo the official handicapper often over reacts and gives a horse an unrealistic Handicap mark in what turns out to be a weak race, virtually wiping out its chances of winning as a 3 yo. The first thing to understand is that a win in a certain grade or class is not always as meritorious as it may seem at first glance. As a consequence they are extremely well handicapped and often run up long winning sequences as 3 yos when upped to an appropriate trip

The theory also falls down on other counts. Northern form tends to be weaker than races at the major Southern courses, as does early season form. Once again look for trainers whose runners improve after a break at certain times of the year and keep an eye on the market for confidence in the horse.

You can make racing pay from formbook study, but it is hard work and don’t let anyone else tell you otherwise.

If you fancy a runner take a look at the way the trainer operates. The connections will then place the horse in a race where the conditions play to its strengths and if you can identify such a horse it may be better to get your money on early as the price will often contract before the off if the connections have a decent bet on the horse.

Is it any wonder then that certain trainers will look to the future and run their juveniles three times when the horse isn’t fully wound up or running over an inappropriate distance? This way the horse has a better chance of being well handicapped as a 3 yo as the handicapper may realise what is going on, but can only rate a horse on the evidence of what he has seen on the track. Sadly this premise is flawed on several levels. By concentrating on 4 yo plus races you by and large, eliminate the element of surprise as all or most of the runners are exposed.

One punter I know used to believe in backing “The Class horse” in the race in the belief that if it had won in a better Class of race than the other runners it was the one to follow as the cream would come to the top. They also do not factor in such circumstances as to whether a horse was badly hampered, given a poor ride by the jockey or chose the wrong strip of ground, etc. Juveniles having theirsecond run often improve beyond all recognition and understandably so; a view also taken by the stewards.

Hopefully, the following 10 tips will help to improve your form reading:

Runners who are currently rated 7lb lower than their best winning weight in a Handicap can be said to be “Well in at the weights” and have a good chance of winning, given the right conditions.

Information is power and in the early part of the season in particular.On many occasions you won’t have much more information in a 3 yo race than in a 2 yo race and the information available may be seriously misleading. Once again the form book often goes out of the window with 3 yo horses; shocking as it may seem, some trainers don’t want their horses to win as 2 yos. As with any other form of learning you will only improve with a great deal of effort and study along with a sprinkling of good luck, As the old saying goes though “The harder I work the luckier I seem to get”

The first step in trying to find the winner of a race should be to eliminate the runners you believe cannot win and to leave yourself with a shortlist of runners that can win.

Look for improving horses.

Look for trainer Trends. If a horse is poorly Handicapped a trainer will often run it over unsuitable circumstances in an effort to get it well Handicapped and heaven forbid the trainer may not have the horse 100% fit or may instruct the jockey to take it out wide or ride it down the unfavoured strip of ground. I’ve also yet to meet a ratings computer in the paddock, telling me how well a horse looked before a race.

Don’t be afraid of a row of duck eggs; just because a horse has run poorly for its last 6 or 7 races, does not necessarily mean it has lost its form or cannot win on the day. There will be few springers and certain 3yo plus Handicaps are also fine as long as there aren’t any 3 yo runners who have only had a couple of races.

2 year old form, especially in the early months of the season is extremely unreliable. Look for trainers who operate this way;Sir Mark Prescott is the master; he runs his 2 yos who are bred for longer middle distance races over 5 or 6 furlongs, knowing they have no chance of winning given their breeding. The Hilary Needler is the 2nd listed 2 yo race of the season and the winner of the race is entitled to the prestigious “Black Type” thoroughbreds crave to improve their stud value. However the race is a Listed race in name only and very few of the past winner have gone on to win further Black Type races. It is vital to check that the trip, going and type of course suit the horse; especially if the horse is a Course specialist and most importantly that the winning rating was in the near past, not 3 or 4 years ago


Posted by admin on August 26th, 2016 :: Filed under horses bet,horses betting

Horse Racing Articles | HubPages Sports and Recreation

The horses include Man O’war, Bold Ruler, Ribot, Vaguely Noble, Nijinsky, Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef among others.. John Francome: Champion jockey, author and racing presenterby Rickrideshorses4 years ago

John Francome’s love of horse racing started when he was six-years old and taken for a ride on a donkey at the seaside. Harness Racing Tips and Strategiesby Mark14 months ago

Standardbred horse racing is a fun way to spend an evening.

Horse Racing Betting Strategies and Tipsby John Coviello3 years ago

Learn about basic horse racing betting strategies and tips to test your intellectual skills and abilities to pick winning horses. Learn what to look at and focus on to pick the race winners.

U.S. Having a basic understanding of the horse gaits can be vital to horse…

Famous Race Mares in Historyby Alexander A7 years ago

Thanks for checking out my hub on famous race mares in history.  The horses chosen for this article are among my personal favorites, which is of course based only on my own opinions.  Yours may vary(and that’s…

Horse Racing: How To Read Racecards (Race Cards)by Jeff Mallinson3 years ago

In horse racing, “racecards” are used to give information about the races and the particular horses running in them.

The most common three types…

Famous racehorsesby Rickrideshorses4 years ago

The greatest racehorses throughout history won races in Britain, America, France and more. From humble beginnings in a council house in Swindon, Wiltshire, he went on to become a seven times…

All About Horse Racingby Bettor5 years ago

Horse racing is commonly known as, ‘sports of royalty and nobility.’

It is also widely recognized as King’s Sports and is an extremely organized and

commercialized game. Through many years of experience, I have developed some useful tips to help you pick winners in the United States harness races.

10 tips: Form study (Horse racing)by markfo4 years ago

10 common sense tips to improve your strike rate on the horses, along with some lesser known tips from racing writer Mark Foley, AKA Statman.

Top 5 Betfair Horse Racing Trading Tips For Beginnersby GavinLambert1015 years ago

Alright, so you’ve got yourself a Betfair account, you’ve downloaded Bet Angel or Gruss as your betting interface, had a little dabble, but still aren’t sure what you need to be looking for in order to start making some…

Types of Horse Paces and Horse Gaitsby Miss Lil’ Atlanta5 years ago

The Paces of a Horse

There are a total of five horse gaits, although most horse breeds can only perform four out of the five horse paces


Posted by admin on August 25th, 2016 :: Filed under horses bet,horses betting

Do Horse Racing Betting Systems Work? by Martin Blacksheep

I can say in all honesty that as a former frustrated punter it is well worth the time checking out this information. With How to ‘Place Bets’ on Favorites for a Living , you don’t need any prior horse betting or statistics knowledge. Also why place betting on favorites is the safest and easiest way to profit from horse racing betting. The twist is, you don’t even bet for a win! By betting for a place only you dramatically increase the odds in your favor. Plus it takes only 10-20 minutes to use on any race day. This is a betting system that really delivers.

Don’t get me wrong. It is theoretically possible to make a consistent profit on investing in high priced non favorites at the track. Ok now don’t go all skeptical on me at this point. Most never even try a betting system, something which is essential to actually make a consistent profit on horse betting.

Everyone knows that the favorites have a high chance of winning a race right? What Ali’s system does is to select only certain types of favorites that have even a much higher chances of winning.

He answers the questions of why place betting on favorites is simply the quickest way to profit from horse racing betting. For a betting system, believe me, that’s pretty revolutionary!

If you want to be shown a step-by-step outline of exactly how you can use Ali’s betting system, How to ‘Place Bets’ on Favorites for a Living, to consistently earn an income from horse racing betting, then head on over to the website at http://www.horsebetpro.com

Ali’ betting system can be applied to any gallop horse race in the world. Occasionally they will get lucky and succeed. He lays the complete betting system out before you, why bet on favorites and why for a place? The answer… Few betting systems deliver on what they promise. The word here is lucky, in the long run they will certainly lose money. The guy shows you how he maintained a win strike rate of 89.52% and a place strike rate of 96.35% using his own betting system.

There are lots of so called Horse Racing betting systems out there. The majority of punters that lose money on horse racing try to make big sums of money from just a few dollars. However investing on certain favorites that have passed a set of Ali’s betting system rules will definitely set the odds in your favor in a very big way!

Horse Racing Betting Systems – Do they Work?

So the Horse racing betting system in a nutshell goes something like this:-

I recently came across Mohammed Ali’s Betting system, How to ‘Place Bets’ on Favorites for a Living. Its simply a matter of consistently following the betting system. . Its safe, quick and easy… First off all let me clarify something, when he talks about making money from horse racing betting, he’s not talking about a few freak or lucky wins in a month. In the limited space I have available in this article there’s no way I can fully convince you about how much you can learn from this guys betting system. Does anyone really have the spare time to do this consistently? Call me lazy but why make things hard for yourself betting on hard to pick non favorites when you can very, very easily profit from the favorites!

Let me assure you that the betting system is written in plain English and it’s easy enough for a 11 year old to use. What you end up with is a set of very secure favorites that have an extremely high chance of winning. it’s so easy that at times it feels almost unfair. Doing it this way is going to take you 18 hours a day of research just to figure out which horses may produce the goods.

He then put these horses through a set of betting system simple rules to eliminate any risks they may be carrying. Its already been extensively used in America, Hong Kong, Canada, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, UK and most of Europe for over 13 years by thousands of people. What he’s referring to is consistently profiting week after week and year after year from punting. I’ve been ripped off before with horse racing betting systems so I understand exactly where you’re coming from. You’ve sent away for stuff that never quite reached you, or you bought something and it didn’t live up to its expectations. When you bet on well priced non-favorites, you are effectively betting against the odds


Posted by admin on August 24th, 2016 :: Filed under horses bet,horses betting