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2015 NCAA tourney betting guide

A lot of NCAA underdogs have used a stellar defense to pull upsets or cover spreads against more athletic teams. 7 seed and Ohio State at No. The Zags just won the West Coast Conference by winning two games 79-61 and 91-75. Austin +6

Best and worst coaches to bet on

o picks for every NCAA tourney game on Thursday and Friday

o ATS records for every tourney team

o the best 2015 NCAA title value bets 

o Vegas handicappers’ best ATS bets, upset picks and over/under bets

o the best system bets from David Solar of Sports Insights

o the best and worst coaches in the tourney to bet on

o the top 10 public teams according to Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

ATS pick: Cincinnati -1

East Regional

ATS pick: TBD

ATS pick: Texas Southern +21.5*

No.

Tuley: Davidson has its best team since Stephen Curry led it to the Elite Eight in 2008, and this team might be even better overall. underachiever (Texas). For all of Texas’ length and size, the Longhorns were a solid, but hardly impressive plus-3.9 rebounds per game vs. 9 Purdue Boilermakers

Westgate line: West Virginia -4.5

PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent picked West Virginia

Westgate line: Notre Dame -12

PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Notre Dame

Tuley: This game is a contrast in styles, as St. They’ve lost two games all year: an OT loss at Arizona and a 3-point loss to BYU, the No. The same can be said for Purdue’s two 7-footers, Isaac Haas and A.J. The Tigers have to be feeling the role of Cinderella, and I think they can stay within the huge number.

Westgate line: Georgetown -7.5

PickCenter consensus pick: 73 percent picked Eastern Washington

Tuley: A lot of people are picking this game as this year’s mega-upset (like Mercer over No. If Harvard can dictate the pace, the experienced Crimson could pull another upset or at least keep this within the spread.

ATS pick: Wichita State -6

No. No.

By David Solar, SportsInsights.com

Westgate line: Oklahoma -12

PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent picked Oklahoma

Cincinnati plus-1 vs. -1.5

PickCenter consensus pick: 65 percent picked San Diego St. Below is a list of the best and worst coaches to bet on in the NCAA tourney this year and their corresponding ATS tourney records.

Westgate line: Providence -TBD

PickCenter consensus pick:

Westgate line: Iowa St. You’re going to run into situations in the tournament where hot shooting beats good defense, but in this instance, I want my money on the far more complete basketball team. No. Interesting side note in that for all the flack Barnes and the Longhorns have taken, they have an identical 17-13 ATS record as Butler. 10 Indiana Hoosiers

To be added after the North Florida-Robert Morris “First Four” game on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio.

ATS pick: Eastern Washington +7.5*

No. Indiana

Maryland minus-4 vs. No. No. 10 Georgia Bulldogs

Selvaggio: Utah (75-1 at CG Technology; 60-1 at Westgate)

Westgate line: North Carolina -8.5

PickCenter consensus pick: 68 percent picked North Carolina

ATS pick: Stephen F. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. 5 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Michigan St. 15 New Mexico St Aggies

ATS pick: Butler +1.5

No. Lafayette did play at Villanova in last season’s opener and was tied with eight minutes to play before losing by 16 points (75-59). As an underdog under Steve Alford, the Bruins are 17-7 hitting the under.

Lange: How is either team going to score? Both squads are tremendous at packing the paint, contesting shots and rebounding. SMU held opponents to fewer than 60 points per game this season — ranked in the top 20 in the nation. Coastal Carolina

Oklahoma St. No. This is a long-winded way of saying that the committee put VCU in at a No. 13 Eastern Washington Eagles

No. 14 Albany Great Danes

No. No. But I don’t expect Arizona to rack up a ton of points and run up the score, either. No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. He will not get outcoached. We all know the Harvard kids are smart, but Crimson have also won opening-round games each of the past two years. This team is 18-7-1 ATS after a loss, and 23-9-1 ATS on neutral courts. As a team, the Huskies shoot 52.9 percent from 2, 38.8 percent from 3 and 72.4 percent from the free throw line. Offensive rebounding and garbage points are musts for Butler, because Texas is a fairly strong defensive team in the half court. 3 Iowa St. 6 Butler Bulldogs vs. The oddsmakers certainly think so, as they made Ohio State the favorite despite the seedings. 7 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. 15 Belmont Bruins

Cincinnati plus-1 vs. 2 seed Duke last year). No. Iowa State

5. No. Albany

NC State minus-1 vs. Albany is on an 0-5 ATS run and will get stomped by the talented and well-coached Sooners.

Tuley: UCLA’s inclusion by the selection committee was the most vilified decision on Selection Sunday (especially when the Bruins were given a No. The Wolfpack are a tough matchup for a lot of teams with their three-guard attack of 6-3 junior Trevor Lacey (15.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG), 6-5 senior Ralston Turner (13.2 PPG) and sophomore Anthony Barber (12 PPG). The Bulldogs obviously missed him on both ends of the floor, and it probably kept them from winning that game and finishing second in the league tourney to Kentucky.

South | West | Midwest | East South Regional

No. Some will say the Shockers are being punished for losing to Illinois State in the Missouri Valley semifinals. We’ve asked our experienced group of wiseguys, including Dave Tuley, Andrew Lange, Dave Solar, Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog Sports and Sal Selvaggio what they’re looking at when handicapping the bracket and picking tourney games.

Dave Tuley:

No. If anyone asks if I think my dog has a chance to win outright, I’m going to say, “Of course!” On most of my plays, I’ll add a little something on the money line. As much as I and most bettors despise Rick Barnes, it’s important to recognize that the Longhorns have the better personnel in this matchup. No. Furthermore, they’re playing their best basketball of the season right now, winning the Atlantic 10 title, and they will be taking on a turnover-prone Buckeyes team.

Westgate line: San Diego St. 6 Xavier Musketeers vs. Oftentimes, those “snubbed” teams go on to lose right away in the NIT and the “overseeded” teams live up to their billing, while “underseeded” teams put in disappointing showings. It almost always yields a better payoff, plus it gives you the option along the way to pull out profits or to stop altogether if there’s a key injury or something.

Tuley: Every year, there are a few teams that get snubbed or a few teams that get overseeded or underseeded and cause heated discussions. If you’re playing any other team and don’t want to parlay game to game (maybe you’re betting in Vegas and won’t be back after the opening weekend), bet the odds to win the regional (see below) instead of the odds to win the whole thing. Bison

ATS pick: Gonzaga -16.5

To be added after the Hampton/Manhattan “First Four” game on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio.

Bettors can also use the public betting trends available on ESPN Chalk’s Live Odds page to track favorites receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets.

No. 12 Wofford Terriers

Andrew Lange: Bettors are faced with handicapping a dreaded “non-boarded” team here, as New Mexico State won the oddball WAC. The Cowboys come in off a bad offensive game against Oklahoma, but they are 6-1-1 ATS after scoring fewer than 50 points in their previous game. 4. The Bulldogs held a plus-7.3 rebounds-per-game edge in Big East play — 3.9 rebounds per game better than second-best Providence. No. All that stuff aside, we can only handicap the games in front of us, and while SMU is a solid team, I am convinced that if UCLA plays like it did against Arizona in the Pac-12 semifinals, the Bruins will be able to pull the upset here.

In last week’s conference tournament betting guide, we detailed a system that focuses on large underdogs in low-scoring games, and explained how public betting patterns change during the postseason. North Carolina

VCU plus-2 vs.

Eastern Washington plus-7.5 vs. 16 Hampton/Manhattan winner

Westgate line: Kentucky -TBD

PickCenter consensus pick: TBD

Westgate line: Arkansas -6.5

PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Wofford

Andrew Lange:

Our theory posits that when an underdog pulls off an unlikely upset, square bettors have difficulty accepting the team’s new role as a favorite. The Tigers turned it over 17 times to Auburn’s attacking guards, and this is an equally tough backcourt matchup.

Tuley: I don’t expect Texas Southern to give Arizona too much of a scare as they’re overmatched talent-wise and don’t have a superstar or even a true big man. Kansas

10. Wisconsin is tops in the Big Ten in points allowed, second in free throws, second in field goal shooting and rebound margin. North Carolina has every possible edge, but the Tar Heels don’t always show up, and they were just 14-13-1 ATS before finishing the season 5-2 ATS.

Westgate line: Northern Iowa -7.5

PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Wyoming

Westgate line: Utah -6

PickCenter consensus pick: 59 percent picked Stephen F. -2

PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Ohio St. 12 Stephen F. 2 Arizona Wildcats vs. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. 5 Utah Utes vs. It’s that lack of depth that has me looking to play against them in the next round, but not in this one.

Coaching is a huge part of any sport, but particularly in college basketball. However, I think what gives Belmont a chance to at least cover is that Virginia’s leading scorer,  Justin Anderson, is coming back slowly from a broken finger and an appendectomy. The Mountaineers’ success in the “first meetings” in Big 12 play (6-3 SU/ATS) suggests we look their way.

. Tyler Kalinoski was the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year, but he’s far from the lone gunman as Davidson averages more than 10 3-pointers made (hitting at better than 40 percent from long range) and more than 80 points per game. The Great Danes lost 64-60 to Providence and 75-59 to UNLV. 5 (and for good reason), but I think the oddsmakers had this right when they opened Northern Iowa as a 7.5-point favorite. 7 Wichita State Shockers vs. The issue is that Northeastern hasn’t faced an offense even remotely close to that of the Irish. Now, it’s a sliding scale. No. 16 North Florida/Robert Morris

No. 9 LSU Tigers

No. I will have some on Harvard plus-525 over North Carolina and Belmont plus-1200 over Virginia, but I’ll probably pass on Texas Southern and Lafayette at plus-2500 apiece over Arizona and Villanova.

Jay Kornegay’s top public teams

ATS pick: TBD

Tuley: I liked Iowa State last year and was bummed when the Cyclones ran into another hot team that I was in love with (UConn) in the Sweet 16. This is one of those instances, and it provides a very strong favorite laying a very reasonable price.

As the spreads get higher, the points are more likely to come into play and I’ll bet a smaller percentage on the money line: Georgia plus-210 over Michigan State and Eastern Washington plus-280 over Georgetown. It took time, but Maryland’s offense looked improved the back half of the campaign. SEC Player of the Year Bobby Portis (yes, he won over all those Kentucky blue-chippers) and his teammates love to run, and I just don’t see Wofford keeping pace.

Wunderdog: NC State is on a nice 6-2 SU run coming into the Big Dance. 4 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Kansas is at its best in transition, and I would expect it to push the pace and pull New Mexico State along.

No.

ATS pick: Baylor -7

ATS pick: Iowa St. 3 Baylor Bears vs. Cincinnati chews up tons of clock trying to get the ball in the paint to Octavius Ellis. Villanova

Belmont plus-16 vs. The Ducks allowed 54.5 percent shooting the last game, an 80-52 loss to Arizona, and are 2-6 ATS following a loss of more than 20 points.

Tuley: This line climbed from UNC minus-9 to minus-10, and I liked it more and more — until it got bet back to 8.5. NC State is also 31st in the nation in rebounds. minus-1 vs. The public has mostly bet against UCLA, as this line opened SMU minus-2 at several books and is up to 3.5 at most books and even 4 at a few as of late Monday night. At the time of publication, OSU was receiving just 24 percent of spread bets.

Most profitable tournament coaches since 2005

ATS pick: Northern Iowa -7.5

To be added after the Boise State-Dayton “First Four” game on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio.

Westgate line: Ohio St. They also scored a favorable venue with Omaha and a short four-hour drive north from their campus.

Enjoy and good luck.

ATS picks for every game

ATS pick: Louisville -9

Westgate line: Texas -1.5

PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent picked Texas

Tuley: This line has risen from 4.5 to 5.5 since wagering opened Sunday night, which isn’t too surprising as everyone knows how MSU coach Tom Izzo gets his teams to improve as the season progresses (and we all saw how the Spartans took Wisconsin to OT in the Big Ten title game). 16 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Tuley: I’m conflicted on this game. A year ago at this time they played American in the opening game and won 75-35, allowing only 29 percent shooting.

ATS pick: Davidson +2*

No. Notre Dame can score, but both teams play solid defense, allowing points in the 60s.

No. Utah can play with anybody sans Kentucky in this field.

The first would be that instead of betting the fixed-odd futures to win the title, bet the money line in the first game your team plays and roll over your winnings through all six games. In nonconference play, a number of NMSU’s games were in the high 60s to low 70s, possession-wise. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys

Lange: Arguably the best attribute to have with a double-digit underdog in the NCAA tournament is high-caliber shooters, and on paper, Northeastern has just that. Coastal Carolina

Tuley: Gonzaga is hardly even considered a mid-major anymore; instead, it’s the poster child for programs like North Dakota State, which upset Oklahoma last year in the Seattle subregional. 2 offensive team in the nation. However, we do have a Tier 2 match on Oklahoma State. No. O’Brien. WVU’s Juwan Staten (knee) and Gary Browne (ankle) are still nursing injuries, but expected to play. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. When dealing with mid-major teams, I’m hesitant to put much stock into nonconference play as a vast majority of games against power conference foes are played on the road. They have great balance, with a strong frontcourt, while 6-4 junior Buddy Hield (17.5 PPG, 5 RPG) and 6-4 junior Isaiah Cousins (12.2 PPG, 5 RPG) run the backcourt and lead the team in scoring. That worked out well for me, but this year I’m hoping to be able to back Iowa State on a deeper run with Georges Niang & Co. No. minus-6 vs. 14 UAB Blazers

Westgate line: Michigan St. 11 Boise St./Dayton winner

Westgate line: Wisconsin -18

PickCenter consensus pick: 65 percent picked Wisconsin

More money hits the market during the NCAA tournament than any other time in the sports betting calendar. Mary’s, Baylor and Colorado State (average loss: 8.8 PPG). This is the best and most balanced Gonzaga team yet, playing in its backyard, so I can’t get on the NDSU bandwagon.

Wunderdog: You know what you’re going to get out of Oklahoma. +1*

Midwest Regional

The second is specific to this NCAA tournament, with such a huge favorite in Kentucky. Whatever the reason, our historical archive reveals a distinct change in public betting behavior.

Westgate line: Virginia -16

PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Belmont

Wunderdog: Wisconsin got off to a great start this season and hasn’t slowed down. 8 NC State Wolfpack vs. (Note: I am considering playing Georgia State plus-4.5 in the first half, though that still seems a little short.

Lange: First thing’s first: Can Buffalo hang on to the basketball and rebound on the defensive end? No team in the MAC comes close to resembling West Virginia’s chaotic ways. Hammons. When this team was also an underdog in its previous game, the number of past matches is reduced dramatically, but we’re left with a 27-11 ATS record (+14.5 units, 38.2 percent ROI).

No. No. Georgetown

UCLA plus-2 vs. 14 Northeastern Huskies

Wunderdog: Gonzaga (18-1 at Westgate, bet down to 15-1)

Westgate line: SMU -2

PickCenter consensus pick: 67 percent picked SMU

Wunderdog: Defense is key in March and Oklahoma State has it, as the Cowboys finished fourth in the Big 12 in points allowed, and fifth in field goal shooting percentage allowed this season. Gonzaga 6-foot-10 freshman Domantas Sabonis (9.5 PPG, 7 RPG), 7-1 junior Przemek Karnowski (11 PPG) and 6-10 junior Kyle Wiltjer (16.7 PPG) anchor an NBA-like frontcourt, while senior guard Kevin Pangos (11.5 PPG, 5 APG) gets things moving. -4.5

PickCenter consensus pick: 70 percent picked Michigan St. 12 seed). The team was 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in their absence. Duke

7. -12

ATS pick: West Virginia -4.5

No. 10 when a lot of people would argue those should be switched. Wisconsin is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five NCAA tournament games. 8 Oregon Ducks vs. Big 12 opponents. Wyoming made a nice run through the Mountain West Conference to steal a bid, but Northern Iowa has moved beyond that “Cinderella” category into a team that wouldn’t be a shock if it made the Sweet 16 (in fact, an argument could be made that the Panthers should be the No. Besides, a lot of people think the Hoyas are overseeded; in fact, the BPI had them as a No. In the end this is a very even matchup, but I think the Bearcats are still the play, even being bet to favoritism.

ATS pick: Oklahoma -12*

No. No. No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks vs. The Sooners are also on a 10-3 SU run, and are 23rd in the nation in rebounds. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. 4 Georgetown Hoyas vs. I say they caught a break by facing super-soft Indiana and a likely date against a reeling Kansas squad in the second round. 15 Texas Southern Tigers

ATS pick: TBD

Utah would be the only tourney future I see to hold a little bit of value. Coach Lon Kruger is outstanding, knowing how to get his team focused and prepared, and he’s very strong at in-game adjustments. No. When facing a winning team this season, UCLA was 17-6 hitting the under. Sure, the Super Bowl may take a larger handle than any individual game, but the cumulative number of bets taken during March Madness dwarfs even the mighty beast known as the NFL playoffs.

Lange: From a betting perspective, the Terrapins went from underrated heading into Big Ten play (4-2 ATS start) to overrated after sweeping Michigan State (which went on a 1-8 ATS slide), and then back to underrated following six straight covers heading into the Big Dance. The Wolfpack match up well with an LSU squad that is on a 6-4 SU run, bowing out fast in the SEC tourney (a 73-70 OT loss to Auburn as a 9-point favorite). -12

PickCenter consensus pick: 54 percent picked Iowa St. But I’m going contrarian here. However, it troubles me that this line is so short (years ago, this would be well into double digits) and I’m just afraid that in the end, Baylor will win out. 15 North Dakota St. 11 UCLA Bruins

No. Purdue

Notre Dame minus-12 vs. 1 Villanova Wildcats vs. -1.5

West Regional

ATS pick: Arkansas -6.5

One reason for this phenomenon may be that bettors are used to taking upsets in their brackets, making them more likely to gravitate toward the underdog. Since Butler left in 2011, the last three Big Dance participants from the Horizon lost by margins of 15, 11 and 20 in the first round.

No. Statistically, the Bulls are fairly sound in the turnover department (15.2 percent vs. Valparaiso

Westgate line: Arizona -21.5

PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Arizona

No. Anyway, the added rest should help Gaines and put Georgia as a live underdog.

Maddux Sports:

ATS pick: TBD

To be added after the BYU-Mississippi “First Four” game on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio.

No. But for the Aggies, it’s really all we have to go off considering they haven’t played anyone even remotely capable since beating UC Irvine at home in early January.

ATS pick: NC State -1*

NCAA tournament teams, 2014-15 records

No. Spartans vs. This isn’t your typical Valpo team, as the Crusaders play at a plodding pace and win with defense (0.94 points per possession allowed). Arizona

3. 8 San Diego St. Ohio St. And Mick Cronin’s absence won’t be as magnified with Purdue playing a nearly identical brand of basketball. The reason for this is if your team gets to the Final Four and you want to hedge, you’re gonna be paying a huge price to hedge with Kentucky on the money line.

With more than 9.2 quintillion possible NCAA tournament brackets, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. 11 BYU/Ole Miss winner

Westgate line: Duke -TBD

PickCenter consensus pick: TBD

Tuley: Here’s another 5-12 matchup, with the public looking to the underdog to pull an upset. 4 seed, though it’s a moot point since they’re on a collision course with Louisville regardless).

ATS pick: Maryland -4

Tuley: I have two things to say about betting futures.

To summarize our handicappers’ best bets (lines are from the Westgate SuperBook as of Tuesday morning):

Below are the ATS records for every NCAA tournament team this season, along with each team’s SU record and average margin of cover.

Note: Picks marked with an asterisk (*) are best bets. No. 10 Davidson Wildcats

Tuley: Well, this region is looking rather chalky so far, but I believe that ends here (though I do have some trepidation as Eastern Washington is becoming such a trendy pick). Iowa

Lafayette plus-23 vs. Austin Lumberjacks

Westgate line: Gonzaga -16.5

PickCenter consensus pick: 54 percent picked North Dakota St. Oregon

Oklahoma minus-12 vs. Purdue

West Virginia minus-4.5 vs. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes

Teams I would consider: Iowa State at 9-2 to win the South and Baylor at 10-1 to win the West.

Fading the trendy underdog

ATS pick: Oklahoma St. While managing egos seems to be the largest challenge for NBA coaches, imparting fundamentals and turning five talented individuals into one cohesive unit are just two of the struggles facing college coaches. 9 St. Neither team will shy away from the transition game, but the opportunities will be limited, especially for Purdue as the Bearcats boast one of the best transition defenses I’ve seen this season. This team is 312th in the nation in assists and its top rebounder is 6-6 Sam Rowley. The Bulldogs have more than enough talent to hang with Duke and Kentucky.

I think it’s important not to punish NMSU too much for its conference affiliation, as the program recruits well and has been on solid footing throughout the Marvin Menzies era. They have a similar profile to the Mountaineers with poor outside shooting (31.9 percent 3-pointers) but the ability to hit the offensive boards (36.5 percent). 5 Northern Iowa Panthers vs. 11 Texas Longhorns

No. UC Irvine has twin towers in 7-6 Mamadou Ndiaye and 7-2 Ioannis Dimakopoulos, but Louisville still has the matchup’s two best players in Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell despite all the players the Cardinals have lost. 12 Buffalo Bulls

Wunderdog Sports:

Tuley: Everyone loves picking No. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters

1. However, this puts Shaka Smart and his VCU program in the underdog role, where they’re more comfortable. No. Kentucky

4. But except for Lawrence Alexander, NDSU is far inferior to the team that nearly made the Sweet 16 last year, and frankly, it wouldn’t be in the field if it hadn’t won the Summit Conference tournament. 1 Wisconsin Badgers vs. Texas Southern comes in with 11 straight wins and covered the first two games in the SWAC tourney before winning but failing to cover in the title game, though that was a weird case (their opponent, Southern, was put on probation so the Tigers were going to be going dancing regardless of the outcome). Not one I’m going to overthink here, as Butler is worth a play as an underdog, preferably at plus-2.

Westgate line: Cincy -1

PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent picked Cincinnati

Westgate line: NC State -1

PickCenter consensus pick: 64 percent picked NC State

Wisconsin minus-18 vs. The Cowboys lost their previous game against Oklahoma and opened as a 1-point favorite against Oregon. 2 Virginia Cavaliers vs. However, I’ve seen this before where a team sneaks into the tournament and vindicates the selection committee (most notably VCU in 2011). Everyone is buying into the hype of the nation’s leading scorer, Tyler Harvey (22.9 PPG), and that the Eagles get to play in their home state while Georgetown has to travel all the way across the country from the “other” Washington. No. Virginia

Georgia plus-4.5 vs. The Terps aren’t built to win by big margins, but this price appears cheap. Unfortunately, this system would also include teams that were an underdog during their last conference tournament game. Northeastern

Wichita St. Another thing working for the underdog is that Lafayette coach Fran O’Hanlon is a Nova alumnus and there’s a chance the Wildcats won’t want to embarrass O’Hanlon by running up the score.

Tuley: This isn’t like one of the Louisville teams we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in recent years, and they look fade-able, but it looks like the committee did the Cardinals a favor with this seeding and matchup. Iowa has a big size advantage, but unless Davidson goes stone cold, I don’t see the Hawkeyes being able to use that enough (at 2 points at a time) to keep up with the Wildcats.

Perhaps bettors consider all tournament participants to be upper-echelon teams and are content taking the points regardless of opponent. However, I’m really high on Utah with its inside-outside tandem of guard Delon Wright and 7-foot center Jakob Poeltl, and this number looks a little short (again, because of the support for SFA as an ever-popular No. Arizona

Harvard plus-8.5 vs. Belmont is probably most known for nearly beating No. No. Albany got here by winning the America East, but didn’t step up in competition much. Arkansas won 10 of its last 13 games, and two of those losses were to Kentucky. I don’t see any potential matchup where I’ll be fading them, starting with the opener, as UAB needed the home court to win the Conference USA tournament as the fourth seed to earn its dance ticket. But fear not: ESPN’s Chalk college basketball betting experts are here to help. With public support shifting, we theorized that there would be value fading these so-called “trendy underdogs.”

Pick: over 131

Lange: This is a classic case of overachiever (Butler) vs. Villanova obviously has the talent edge, but it’s not a size mismatch like we usually see with 1-16 matchups. Indiana is a smoke-and-mirrors team that beat up on the weak and shot its way to wins at home — not a recipe for postseason success. John’s will likely stick with its four-guard lineup and push the pace while San Diego State will try to slow it down and control the game with its huge front line — especially compared to SJU with just 6-foot-6 Sir’Dominic Pointer to match up with 6-10 Skylar Spencer, 6-8 Winston Shepard and 6-7 J.J. 12 seeds against No. It’s a veteran team, too. The WAC was one of the slowest conferences in the country, with the “fastest” team averaging 61.6 possessions per game in league play. Aztecs vs. It all looks so easy that I hope it’s not one of those things that are too good to be true.

UCLA averaged more than 80 points per game at home this season, but just 62.7 on the road — a difference of more than 18 points per game. No. They challenged themselves in nonleague play with games at Wichita State, Wyoming, St. The state of college basketball — slower, and lower scoring — makes it so “superior” teams aren’t always asked to cover big numbers. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. 4 Louisville Cardinals vs. 7 Michigan St. Against the spread, I’ll stick with a recommendation on the Lumberjacks plus the points, but I’m not sure I’ll play it myself, so I can’t make it a best bet.

The 10 teams, according to Kornegay, lead bookmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and his staff, that are the most popular teams to wager on as the tourney begins.

ATS pick: San Diego St.

The table below summarizes the results of our analysis.

ATS pick: Harvard +8.5*

Westgate line: Kansas -11

PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Kansas

ATS pick: Lafayette +23*

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No. To eliminate these teams, we focused solely on teams that won their previous game. 6 seed instead of a No.

ATS pick: Wisconsin -18*

Westgate line: Louisville -9

PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent picked UC-Irvine

No. I’m not buying this one. ACC opponents). The Red Storm will really miss suspended 6-10 shot-blocker Chris Obekpa. If bettors are willing to take a 12-seed over a 5-seed straight up, it makes sense that they would also be willing to bet the 12-seed getting points.

Wunderdog: Northeastern/Notre Dame: under 141

No. And while the level of competition in the Colonial (the 19th-rated conference, according to Sagarin) wasn’t all that stiff, Notre Dame isn’t known for its defensive prowess (1.07 points per possession allowed vs. Gonzaga

8. 12 Wyoming Cowboys

Tuley: Villanova is for real, and hard to bet against at 24-9 ATS. No. Seven-footer  Frank Kaminsky, 6-7 Nigel Hayes and 6-8  Sam Dekker are a handful for any frontcourt and will overmatch Coastal Carolina, whose top rebounder is 6-7 Badou Diagne. SMU

Davidson plus-2 vs. John’s Red Storm

What this guide contains:

ATS pick: Belmont +16*

ATS pick: Notre Dame -12

Westgate line: Iowa -2

PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent picked Davidson

No. No. No. The Badgers are 42-20-1 ATS in nonconference games and 20-8-1 ATS in their past 29 neutral-site games. Stephen F. I don’t think Buffalo will be overwhelmed, as they held halftime leads on the road at Kentucky and Wisconsin, but West Virginia is an extremely hard team for which to prepare. The Utes are underseeded by most respected metrics, and the committee didn’t do them any favors matching them up against a tough Stephen F. No. Austin

Using Sport Insights’ Bet Labs software, we found that tournament favorites that receive less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 86-65 ATS (+16.24 units won, 10.8 percent ROI) over the past 10 years. For short-priced dogs, I might just bet only the money line with Davidson plus-120 over Iowa, VCU plus-145 over Ohio State or UCLA plus-150 over SMU, as I’m basically picking them because I believe they will win.

Tuley: Georgia State is an interesting underdog as it plays well on the defensive end, holding 11 opponents under 30 percent shooting this season. The Terrapins rely an awful lot on Dez Wells and Melo Trimble, and I would expect Valpo to play some zone. They also have a tremendous amount of size, with a frontcourt that features players standing 7-3, 6-10, 6-9 and 6-8. Coach Mike Brey is 11-3 hitting the under in NCAA tournament games at Notre Dame.

Tuley: As we’ve all seen over the years, when an underdog is live during March Madness, they often pull the outright upset instead of just covering. 6 Providence Friars vs. Buffalo

Wisconsin minus-18 vs. Cyclones vs.

No. Larry Krystkowiak is one of the best coaches in the game and will hold an advantage over most on the sidelines. 6 SMU Mustangs vs. 16 Lafayette Leopards

ATS pick: UCLA +2*

ATS pick: Georgia +4.5*

Texas Southern plus-21.5 vs. Austin is justifiably getting a lot of support as a live underdog, as it upset VCU last year in this round and a lot of people remember that and are looking for a repeat. 3 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. The Badgers come into the tourney fresh off a Big Ten title, winning every game by double digits. Oregon leans too much on offense, as the Ducks were 10th in the Pac-12 in points allowed and ninth in rebounding defense this season. 2 Duke in 2008, but this year’s team was 25th in the nation from the floor at 47.6 percent, and won its last seven games, including an upset of Murray State to steal the OVC’s automatic bid. 13 Valparaiso Crusaders

With so few past system picks on the third tier of this system, it’s no surprise that there are no current game matches for the opening-round games. While bettors overwhelmingly tend to take the favorite during the regular season, the NCAA tournament is a rare time when the public jumps all over the underdog.

No. The higher the spreads go, the less convinced I am that the underdog will win outright, plus the more the books will shave off the true odds, so I won’t bet as much on the money line. LSU

No. No. No. The American has some weak teams, but I give the Bearcats small edges on both sides of the ball. MAC opponents), but struggled to keep opposing teams off the glass. 14 Georgia St Panthers

Mark Few has had a lot of great players and teams at Gonzaga, but this may be his best. Notre Dame

2. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. And I like the public dog, too. However, the Wildcats are only 2-3 ATS when laying 20 points or more, so this seems to be the tipping point. No. SDSU’s inside game and stubborn defense (the Aztecs allow just 53.1 points per game, ranked second in the nation) should get the job done.

UCLA/SMU: under 134

This is a high total — the third highest on the board in the opening round. Wisconsin

6. Oklahoma State has excellent balance with 6-7 senior Le’Bryan Nash (17 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and 6-8 senior Michael Cobbins up front, plus junior Phil Forte III (15 PGG). Michigan State

9. 7 VCU Rams vs. On offense, they are strong in free throw shooting (76 percent), which is always a plus when games are close. However, the one thing in Butler’s favor is its ability to win the battle on the boards. Northern Iowa

Westgate line: Wichita State -6

PickCenter consensus pick: 55 percent picked Wichita St. 13 Harvard Crimson

Westgate line: Oregon -1

PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Oregon

Westgate line: Villanova -23

PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent picked Lafayette

Lange: It’s the time of year when identifying the better defensive team in a short-lined game puts you in solid position to cash tickets. 11 seed and pretty far removed from the bubble).

Westgate line: Maryland -4

PickCenter consensus pick: 69 percent picked Maryland

During the regular season, a majority of public bettors take the underdog in just 17.65 percent of games; that figure reaches 23.82 percent for the NCAA tournament. Austin team in the first round, but the Utes play a very good brand of basketball that fits the tournament setting. If he’s not fully back in form (and he didn’t look like it in 26 scoreless minutes in the ACC tourney, including a miss on the possible game winner against North Carolina), that opens the door more for the Bruins.

Westgate line: Baylor -7

PickCenter consensus pick: 59 percent picked Baylor

Westgate line: Xavier -TBD

PickCenter consensus pick: TBD

No. No. Georgia was on the bubble and secured its spot in the field by beating South Carolina in the SEC tournament, then sat second-leading scorer Kenny Gaines in the next game against Arkansas. This addition leads to a 12-2 ATS record with +9.45 units won and a 67.5 percent ROI.

Championship title odds

Best title value bets

ATS pick: VCU +2*

No


Posted by admin on August 31st, 2016 :: Filed under bets basketball

6 Tips to Remove YouTube Addiction

Go to the outdoors. Take up a sport. You don’t have to cut everything off suddenly. You can no longer complete your tasks, you spend less time on productive activities, and you may even distance yourself from your loved ones. It’s not really surprising that you’ll end up suffering from depression and a lot of stress later. Further, to make sure you don’t delete the plug-in, you can look for a tool that allows you to add passwords. A sport can be a good motivator for you to spend less time with YouTube. This video-sharing website has garnered millions of followers all over the world, for only a very short time. A lot of websites and plug-ins can already do that for you. It also feels so good if you win competitions. You can share the hobby with your kids. Have someone set it for you. There are a lot of things you can do outside of your home, but you’re missing all of them since you’re just there, watching YouTube.

But how do you exactly get rid of YouTube addiction? Here are seven tips:

3. Affirmations have a way of changing your present mind-set from “cannot” to “can.” The moment you wake up, say the following lines:

By The Pioneer of Subliminal Messages Online.

4. If you don’t want to watch any YouTube videos, then just block the website from your computer.

2.

Today, I’ll spend more time on things that make me grow.

Today, I will spend more time with friends and family.

Today, I’ll relax and spend my day with a lot of quiet and peace.

5.

Now just imagine how it can affect you personally. With so many videos to watch you can’t help but spend the rest of your day doing nothing else but that. If you don’t like sports, then at least pursue a hobby, and hopefully it doesn’t involve computers.

Yes, you don’t watch a lot of television but you’re spending too much time in YouTube. But how? Use subliminal messages. If you’re a mom, arts and crafts would be perfect. Spend less time in front of the PC. Try being in the outdoors at least an hour a day. You won’t be tempted to watch YouTube videos if you also spend less time with your PC. Just block it.

1. If you spend 8 hours with it, you can reduce it to 6 or 5. If you’re a dad, creating furniture and fixtures may be an exciting hobby, which may even turn into a profitable venture. Every time you check on YouTube, you’ll end up having an error page. Encourage yourself to just do it.

. Choose a hobby.

6. And if you can afford it, spend a night in the mountains camping or even travel outside the state or outside of the country. Unless you have the will to get rid of your YouTube addiction, you’ll never be able to do it. In fact, it can increase your self-confidence, plus you’re forced to spend more time with your friends and perhaps your family. Besides it’s really not a good idea to spend more than 4 hours in front of your computer


Posted by admin on August 31st, 2016 :: Filed under sports gambling

Nevada legalizes online gambling – CBS News

New Jersey Gov. “Today I sign into law the framework that will usher in the next frontier of gaming in Nevada.”

The benefit for other states, he said, is Nevada’s “most mature regulatory infrastructure.”

Several other states began looking into online gambling after the Department of Justice issued a letter in 2011 stating that the federal Wire Act of 1961, often used to crack down on gambling over the Internet, only applies to sports betting.

“It’s imperative for the success of this that we compact with other states because we don’t have a universe of players,” Ernaut said.

Nevada wanted to beat New Jersey, its East Coast casino rival, to the online gambling punch. But when those efforts failed in Congress, Sandoval said Nevada would work toward agreements with other states.

“This was a lot of work and it couldn’t have been done without the governor’s leadership and vision,” he said.

Pete Ernaut, a lobbyist representing the Nevada Resort Association, said expanding the customer base was key.

Gambling regulators will now come up with regulations dictating compact parameters.

AB114 authorizes Nevada to enter into compacts with other states to offer Internet poker. Chris Christie previously vetoed an online wagering bill but has indicated he may sign an amended version next week.

Partnering with other states gives Nevada an expanded customer market and provides other states with Nevada’s expertise in gambling regulation.

He praised legislators for their swift action and commended Assembly Majority Leader William Horne, a Democrat from Las Vegas, for shepherding the bill.

AG Burnett, chairman of the Nevada Gaming Control Board, said the state already has about 20 applications from various operators, equipment and software vendors to be licensed for online gambling.

“We have the most mature financial, auditing and collection capabilities, much greater than some of those states, and they have the players,” he said.. A renewal fee was set at $250,000.

The measure makes Nevada the first state in the country to approve interstate online gaming, notes CBS Las Vegas affiliate KLAS-TV, adding that it was put on the fast track Thursday. Brian Sandoval signed legislation Thursday legalizing online gambling in Nevada, capping a dizzying day at the Legislature as lawmakers passed the bill through the Assembly and Senate as an emergency measure.

Sandoval, a former chairman of the Nevada Gaming Commission added, “This bill is critical to our state’s economy and ensures that we will continue to be the gold standard for gaming regulation.”

Horne, in turn, had equal accolades for the Republican governor.

“This is an historic day for the great state of Nevada,” Sandoval said, flanked by dozens of state lawmakers. Sandoval had pushed for companies that want to offer online gambling to pay a $500,000 fee, while Horne, in the original bill draft, proposed $1 million.

Sandoval and Nevada legislative leaders said it was important for Nevada to remain at the forefront of gambling regulation.

Under a compromise, the fee was set at $500,000, though it gives the Nevada Gaming Commission authority to change the amount. It sailed through both the Assembly and Senate on Thursday after a joint hearing before the two judiciary committees.

“As to our competitor, New Jersey, they should be accustomed to following Nevada,” he said.

Horne couldn’t resist at jab at Nevada’s gambling rivals.

CARSON CITY, Nev. Gov. Senate and Assembly judiciary committees approved it, sending it to the Assembly where it passed unanimously.

The bill approved Thursday resolved a disagreement between Horne and the governor’s office over licensing fees. The Senate passed it at midday and sent it to the governor’s desk for signature.

Lawmakers in 2011 passed a bill that put Nevada in position to legalize Internet gambling if the federal government sanctioned it


Posted by admin on August 31st, 2016 :: Filed under online gambling

Finding The Best Winning College Basketball Picks

Every year millions of people place their bets on the big NCAA Basketball tournament that happens annually, and every year there are major upsets and people lose their money when putting faith into the #1 team in the nation. It’s the veterans of college that don’t go straight to the NBA that seem to make a serious go at the championship before they leave. However, savvy gamblers will know that when college basketball picks are in, the upset card is possible.

If you watch enough seasonal action, all around the NCAA, you will have a good set of picks by the time the NCAA tournament comes through and your bracket will be pristine. When you have two evenly matched offensive powerhouses, defense and full court press often times ends up becoming the easiest way to win. Finding the best winning college basketball picks is daunting, and for some it’s a painstaking task, but for those that look deeper than the stats, real greatness happens. Look for strong defenses to go far and pick your selections based on these things. That’s why college basketball picks are hard to figure out compared to the NBA, there is a lot of different factors to consider. . If there is a squad that has gone to the finals many times and hasn’t won yet, but have a group of seniors that could tip the scales into their favor, bet on them. Often times the top seeded teams in the country don’t make it past the first few rounds, and while some narrowly escape defeat, all it takes is for one scrappy squad to throw up 3 pointers on a good run, to topple a giant. For instance, look for a team’s defensive record against others.

The upset card is pulled in NCAA basketball a lot. You just have to make sure that you’re following a variety of teams and watching the way they react to the ball in winning and losing.

Another great tip is to look for standout seniors. Watch out for this, because it will come up and surprise you and the world. Many times, it’s small schools from areas like Spokane, Washington or somewhere in the middle of the country to get into the Final Four and really shake up the college world. Look for this, and then make sure that you compare them to a team where they might have trouble with, and you’ll see green as you pick up the money from placing bets with them. You will often times see a squad full of older players make a lot of noise going into the finals of any major tournament, including NCAA. In order not to be surprised, make sure that you look for teams that have been on the bubble for quite sometime and look for them to prevail. This is especially true for those that have maxed out their eligibility and will be moving on to either the NBA or a chosen career path based on their degree. You’ll know these teams by how they handle themselves losing in the first half, only to come out in the second like a house on fire.

When you look at teams on paper, many match up great, however, when you start to peel away things from an individual player’s perspective you can start to see where a team could prevail or collapse. If you can find a good overall defense compared to offensive plays, then you might have reason to believe that they can probably go far, the reason being is that defense wins games when they are so close


Posted by admin on August 30th, 2016 :: Filed under bets basketball

Gaming – InfoBarrel

Many games help develop practical skills, serve as a form of exercise, or otherwise perform an educational, simulational, or psychological role. In addition, such games are fairly simple to finish off, so gamers are not at all pressured to play for more hours.

- Domino and tile games

- Video games

Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia © 2001-2010 (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game)

- Tabletop games

- Dice games: Backgammon , Dice Chess, Ship, Captain, and Crew (or Six Five Four), Shoot the Moons, Strat-O-Matic

Online Gaming

- Role-playing games (RPG) – These types of games can be played either in electronic format such as on a computer or video game console, some of them even being online like World of Warcraft, or they can be played as a tabletop game like White Wolf or Shadowrun. That is why more and more IT experts are religiously developing new games or simply improving the current prevailing games since there is a huge public clamor for such.

Information technology has certainly made a big impact to humankind. Games generally involve mental or physical stimulation, and often both. The classification made by Wikipedia goes like this:

Playing Games

Are you interested in playing games or in gambling? In real world, offline or online?

Source

Gambling involves activities like casinos, sports books, poker, video poker, craps, black jack, roulette, slot machines, lottery and skill games – just to name a few. Additionally, games for offline gaming are either skill-based or story-based, with the former as the more difficult as it needs your experience and skillfulness in order to play and finish the game.

With offline gaming, the usual games could last around 20 to 100 game play hours. Knowing the trend in online gaming, it is expected that there’s more to come in the future that’s completely exciting. One significant development has something to do with the way games are being played. Time, distance and nationality are defied in the so-called growing cyber world that gathers online gamers. Almost every aspect of human interest turned out to be very accessible. And for these reasons, this is where offline gaming comes into play. But for you to fully appreciate online gaming, you should be aware of the technical aspects to secure a spot in what they call the elite circle of online gamers.

- Pencil and paper games

One reason why online gaming is such a major success is because of the competition being held on a particular game every now and then in which fabulous prizes are at stake. Even with the numerous online games available, offline gaming is still going to exist and probably preferred by some.. While games for offline gaming are still available and loved by some people, the majority already prefers the online games at present.

These games require a PC or laptop, but an Internet connection is not needed. Furthermore, there are times when people would simply want to relax and play a game without having to deal with the other players. Key components of games are goals, rules, challenge, and interaction. In the case of The Sims 3, it can be played either in a computer or PS3 console. They are really popular in both real and online world.

- Sports – here is a list with the most popular sports games: Football, Soccer, Baseball, BasketBall, Hockey, Rugby, Volleyball, Pool Games, Water Games, Cricket, Boxing, Wrestling, Golf, Shooting, Horse Racing, Car Games, Driving Games, Cycling, Bowling, Dodge ball Games, Fishing , Hunting, Ice Skating, Olympics Games, Parking Games, Skateboard, Snowboarding, Surfing Games, Winter Games.

Offline gaming is a cool way to fill in time and enjoy, especially when you cannot go online. Here, online gamers met and have formed virtual camaraderie through the game preferences they had. By the year 1990, its popularity has hit the highest point, but eventually dropped since the market did not expand quickly as what was expected. The thought of outwitting their counterparts is what drives any online gamer to succeed. Today these games are primarily electronic and cover a diversity of imaginary contexts that the modern computers try to recreate as a form of virtual reality.

“A game is a structured activity, usually undertaken for enjoyment and sometimes used as an educational tool. It has gained its popularity which led to the existence of arcades. These games involve taking on the role of a character in the game and controlling the choices of the character while working with their strengths and weaknesses.

- Dexterity/coordination games

Offline Gaming

These games are available online and the best part of it is that you can now play with people from all over the world. A lot of games are now being introduced to the public. Attested as early as 2600 BC, games are a universal part of human experience and present in all cultures.” (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game)

- Card games: Poker, Baccarat, Canasta – to name just the most popular and well known

- Business games

Offline gaming began in the year 1970.

Gambling

- Simulation – Games of this type are extensions of childhood games where children pretend being in adult roles such as doctor, parent or fireman. Some are old games that are just modified to fit with the modern times while some are totally new. As a member, you may avail of discounts on games for sale, get the freebies given to its member, and the opportunity to meet and play with other online games enthusiasts worldwide. Watch out for that.

- Guessing games

There are many different types of games. From simple to complex, intellectual to sports related and the highly dynamic violent games, name it and you have a long list of choices.

The Sims 3

Need for Speed: Shift

The Orange Box

The Elder Scrolls: Morrowind

Starcraft 2

There are a number of popular games for offline gaming as:

- Board games: Monopoly, Go, Scrabble, Chess, The Settlers of Catan, Ticket to Ride, Maharaja, Backgammon, Taj Mahal, Mine a million, Torres, Lost Cities , Speachless, Logo board games, Masterpiece, Buzzle, Highlanders, History of the World, The Game of Life, Dominion, LifeStyle The Financial Planning Game

To play online, you must register first to be qualified and enjoy the benefits of various online gamers club. But more than the prize being offered, online gamers are interested on the title for each competition


Posted by admin on August 30th, 2016 :: Filed under sports gambling

10 Steps You Can Take To Stop Gambling Today

If you gamble online, get gamblock today.. If you want to stop starting right now, block all access to money. Don’t know where to turn to for help? Email jason@livegamblefree.com

STEP 9: HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE FOR YOUR NEXT URGE

When your next urge comes, what will you do? You’ll need to know the answer to this. Know what to do & who to call if a thought or urges to gamble hits you….(and unfortunately they will).

When you absolutely must stop gambling right now, here are 10 steps you can take today.

STEP 10: GET 1 ON 1 SUPPORT.

Stopping Gambling isn’t easy. Inpatient Treatment is another. In the beginning the constant thoughts and urges to gamble can be intense. In the moment, you’ll want a plan of action to take when the urge to gamble attempts to overwhelm you.

STEP 8: STAY HOPEFUL

Only those who never give up on themselves & their program of recovery beat gambling. If needed, list them out. You trust that the program will solve your gambling problem, as long as you never give up on it.

To learn the secrets to stopping gambling now, & to get 1 on 1 coaching from Jason visit http://www.livegamblefree.com or email Jason at jason@livegamblefree.com

STEP 6: BAN YOURSELF FROM GAMBLING (ONLINE AND OFF)

If you go to a local casino, take a caring friend and ban yourself for life.

If you play online, contact the online casino and have your account closed permanently, & demand to be banned from their site. Know that if they can do it, you can too. You help yourself and others triumph over a common enemy. It may sound funny, but joining a group of fellow recovering gamblers gives you strength & power over your gambling. Its best to find someone who’s been in your shoes, but hasn’t gambled in quite some time.

Make sure you like them, they have your best interest in mind, & truly do help you. (Email the author at jason@livegamblefree.com for online communities you can join today). There are 1000′s of people who once were severely addicted to gambling, haven’t gambled for months and even years. Put up pictures of them & when you see it, remember that’s who you’re stopping for.

Recognize that if you gamble, you’re letting them down.

Remind yourself of all the bad things that have been caused by your obsession to gamble. He’s overcome his own addiction to gambling & has helped many others do the same. You make lifelong friends who will always understand and care.

This step can be done by attending Gamblers Anonymous, Celebrate Recovery, & finding online support and help. Carrying recovery reading & phone numbers help. A gambling problem is very strong, plays many tricks on on our minds, & tries to convince us of many lies. He is an author, life coach, sponsor, & former GA chapter president, husband, & stepfather.

There is but one good throw upon the dice, which is, to throw them away. Know that there are 1000′s of recovering gamblers. -Author Unknown.

STEP 5: CARRY RESOURCES WITH YOU AT ALL TIMES

Get or print off pro gambling recovery literature & carry it with you at all times.

Read it daily, especially in first months. There are therapists, counselors, & life coaches out there trained to help you stop.

STEP 7: REMIND YOURSELF WHY YOU’RE STOPPING, & FOR WHO.

Make a list of the people you love & love you back.

These 10 steps are an excellent start to stopping gambling today.

If you have any unanswered questions or need to be pointed in the right direction email jason@livegamblefree.com

STEP 1: GET RID OF YOUR MONEY

If you want to stop gambling right now, the first step begins by stopping to carry money. Have phone numbers listed for people to call who support you in your recovery.

STEP 2: GET HELP TODAY

To overcome something as powerful as a gambling problem or addiction, we must get help from others.

Help is out there in many forms. Connect your gambling with the the negative consequences its brought into your life.

STEP 3: JOIN A COMMUNITY OF RECOVERING GAMBLERS

Recovering in numbers is key. (because it is the truth).

Author’s Bio: 

STEP 4: SUBMIT YOURSELF TO A PROGRAM OF RECOVERY

What does this mean exactly? It means you must submit,commit, & trust in the program of recovery you choose. Carry only a very small budget for food each day and thats it.( absolutely no more than $5). Combat this with the previous 9 steps & a one on one coach, sponsor, or therapist. This includes credit cards, debit cards, access to bank accounts, checks, loans, etc. Gamblers Anonymous is one. Good help seems to come from ex-gamblers themselves because they’ve been there, & they understand. Call them ANYTIME you need to. The only time casinos won’t let you gamble, is when you don’t have what they want……money.

Jason is a recovered compulsive gambler of over 5 years and a certified professional life coach


Posted by admin on August 30th, 2016 :: Filed under online gambling

Using Reverse Line Movement To Win

Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.

Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..

Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com

The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.

College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.

Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.

The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.

So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.

http://prosportsonline.net

NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at.

So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won).

By: Manny G

To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.

Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.

The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.

prosportsonline.net. However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6. This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.

So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice. This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook


Posted by admin on August 29th, 2016 :: Filed under bets basketball

Muhammad Ali, ‘the greatest’, remembered as boxer who transcended sports | Reuters

Despite his failing health, he appeared at the opening ceremony of the 1996 Atlanta Olympics, stilling the tremors in his hands long enough to light the Olympic cauldron. Army and fight in Vietnam, Ali returned in triumph by recapturing the title and starring in some of the sport’s most unforgettable bouts.

Bursting onto the boxing scene in the 1960s with a brashness that threatened many whites, Ali would come to be embraced by Americans of all races for his grace, integrity and disarming sense of humor.

(Additional reporting by Brendan O’Brien in Milwaukee, Frank McGurty in New York, Alex Dobuzinskis and Dan Whitcomb in Los Angeles; Writing by Bill Trott and Frank McGurty; Editing by Alison Williams, Leslie Adler and Paul Tait)

Despite Ali’s failing health, his youthful proclamation that he was “the greatest” rang true until the end for millions of people around the world who respected him for his courage both inside and outside the ring.

“I think when you talk about Muhammad Ali, as great an athlete, as great a boxer as he was, he was the greatest boxer of all time, he means so much more to the United States and the world,” said Ali’s long-time friend, boxing promoter Bob Arum.

Nearby, hundreds more gazed at projections of phrases and images most associated with Ali, such as “float like a butterfly and sting like a bee.”

From Africa to East Asia to the U.S. who stood up for his beliefs … God is the greatest.”

By Ricardo Arduengo

| SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.

“LOUISVILLE LIP”

“His fight outside the ring would cost him his title and his public standing. “The Louisville Lip,” as he was called early in his career, loved to talk – especially about himself.

Ali’s diagnosis of Parkinson’s came about three years after he retired from boxing in 1981. And his victory helped us get used to the America we recognize today.”

In Kinshasa, the city where he battled George Foreman in the 1974 “Rumble in the Jungle” – a city that was then part of Zaire and is now the capital of Democratic Republic of Congo – the fight is remembered as much for its political symbolism as for Ali’s tactical brilliance in beating his hulking opponent.

“He’ll be remembered as a man of the world who spoke his mind and wasn’t afraid to take a chance and went out of his way to be a kind, benevolent individual that really changed the world,” the family spokesman, Bob Gunnell, said at a news conference in Scottsdale, Arizona.

But his taunts could be brutal.

Stripped of his world boxing crown for refusing to join the U.S. who tried to unite all humankind through faith and love.

Flags were flown at half staff in Louisville, Kentucky, where Ali’s modest childhood home on Grand Avenue has been turned into a museum. To put him as a boxer is an injustice.”

“We lost a giant today. “And he stood by that.”

Manny Pacquiao, a boxer and politician in the Philippines, where Ali fought Joe Frazier for a third time in a brutal 1975 match dubbed the “Thrilla in Manila,” paid homage to Ali’s legacy outside the ring.

Ali “was an African. But Ali became much more than a sportsman. He spoke boldly against racism in the ’60s as well as against the Vietnam War.

Ali was born in Louisville, Kentucky, on Jan. The death of Muhammad Ali, the former heavyweight champion known as much for his political activism as his boxing brilliance, triggered a worldwide outpouring of affection and admiration for one of the best-known figures of the 20th century.

President Barack Obama, the first African-American to reach the White House, said Ali was “a man who fought for us” and placed him in the pantheon of civil rights leaders Martin Luther King Jr and Nelson Mandela.

“In the end, he went from being reviled to being revered,” civil rights leader the Rev. Boxing benefited from Muhammad Ali’s talents but not nearly as much as mankind benefited from his humanity,” he said. He also dubbed Frazier a “gorilla,” but later apologized.

Few could argue with his athletic prowess at his peak in the 1960s, with his dancing feet and quick fists. “But Ali stood his ground.

Along with a fearsome reputation as a fighter, Ali spoke out against racism, war and religious intolerance, while projecting an unshakeable confidence that became a model for African-Americans at the height of the civil rights era and beyond.

In New York’s Harlem district, fans gathered outside the famous Apollo Theater, where a marquee paying tribute to Ali read: “The greatest of all time. South, news of Ali’s death brought tributes across the world of sport, entertainment and politics.

The cause of death was septic shock due to unspecified natural causes, a family spokesman said on Saturday.

“Humble people, I’ve found, don’t get very far,” he once told a reporter.

Ali’s daughter Maryum said on Saturday: “I am happy my father no longer struggles. A funeral will be held in his hometown on Friday. He is in a better place. Jesse Jackson told CNN on Saturday. And I wouldn’t even mind if folks forgot how pretty I was.”

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. It would earn him enemies on the left and the right, make him reviled, and nearly send him to jail,” Obama said in a statement. “And if all that’s too much, then I guess I’d settle for being remembered only as a great boxer who became a leader and a champion of his people.

Pam Dorrough, a tourist in New York’s Times Square, admired Ali’s refusal to apologize for what he believed.

Foreman said Ali was one of the greatest human beings he had met. “Joe Frazier is so ugly that when he cries, the tears turn around and go down the back of his head,” he once said about his arch rival. 17, 1942, as Cassius Marcellus Clay Jr, a name shared with a 19th century slavery abolitionist. He was a Congolese,” David Madiawi, a salesman on Kinshasa’s Avenue de Commerce, said on Saturday. “No doubt he was one of the best people to have lived in this day and age. 1942-2016.”

“He was a transformative figure in our society.”

Ali, who had long suffered from Parkinson’s syndrome which impaired his speech and made the once-graceful athlete almost a prisoner in his own body, died on Friday at age 74. He changed his name after his conversion to Islam.

“The confidence – and I know everybody thought it was an arrogance about him – he always projected a confidence,” she said. “He came to Congo to return to the land of his ancestors.”

Ali is survived by his wife, the former Lonnie Williams, who knew him when she was a child in Louisville, along with his nine children.

TRIBUTES POUR IN

Ali met scores of world leaders, during and after his championship reign, and for a time he was considered the most recognizable person on earth, known even in remote villages in countries far from the United States.

In the brutal world of prize fighting, Ali set himself apart with his wit and fondness for playful verse. Ali was admitted to a Phoenix-area hospital, HonorHealth, with a respiratory ailment on Monday..

Asked how he wanted to be remembered, Ali said: “As a man who never looked down on those who looked up to him ..


Posted by admin on August 27th, 2016 :: Filed under sports book,the sports book

Rocky Marciano – InfoBarrel

Marciano went back into training and bought a toupee. Ali later said that Marciano punched so hard he was sore for days after. Then Rocky and Ali sparred 70 rounds for the camera, simulating different endings to the fight. Rocky kept coming, even after Walcott knocked him down, closed his left eye, and opened cuts on his face that required fourteen stitches to close.

Outwardly Marciano’s life after boxing was quite successful – unlike many fighters, he kept his money and his wits. The Marchegiano’s had five more children after Rocco: Alice, Connie, Elizabeth, Louis, and Peter. Pierino’s exposure to mustard gas during combat changed his life, but not his toughness. Walcott collapsed to the canvas and was counted out. At the time boxing was a diversion, a way to make a few bucks to help out his family. The people of the world should be informed of this boy’s character and personality.” 

Marciano died without a will. Equally unique, Marciano never came out of retirement to challenge subsequent champions, a temptation very few ex-champions have overcome, much less succeeded at.

His upbringing was steeped in Italian customs and traditions. Until Rocco put Brockton on the national map, his hometown was best known for its shoe factories. Walcott bounced off and threw a hard left hand. Ali was in retirement too, after having his title stripped for refusing the draft. It was an incredible run. The sparring film would be spliced together to match the computer outcome of the fight – a closely guarded secret that would not be revealed until “The Superfight” aired in theaters.

Rocky was an old school Catholic. His marriage was strained. Yet he used a wire to try to get coins back he used to make telephone calls. He was a near-classic example of the triumph of classic virtues (Boston Herald Traveler, September, 1969).” 

After serving as a GI in World War II, Rocco played minor league baseball. Rocky didn’t trust banks, either, so he hid his cash: in the ground, inside toilet tanks, in light fixtures. At the time many children died of pneumonia, but Rocco eventually recovered, and Lena kept her promise.

Not that there is anything particularly Catholic about being a teetotaler.  It’s just that Marciano, though intelligent, was a very simple man who never forgot where he came from. It hit Walcott’s jaw with the sound of a baseball bat. On those occasions Rocco reached opponents with his right hand, however, they fell down and didn’t get up. 

On August 31, 1969, Marciano planned to interrupt his business circuit and fly back to Florida to celebrate his forty-sixth birthday with his family. Although he left thousands (some claim hundred of thousands) of dollars stashed away or buried underground, none of it was found to aid Barbara and the children, who were impoverished after Rocky’s death.

Marciano’s character was on display in his first fight with Walcott, which was a classic. It is difficult to win a fight when you can’t reach your opponent. Then he was cut from the Chicago Cubs farm system. Skehan, Rocky Marciano, Biography of a First Son, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston, 1977. 

Marciano’s determination in the Walcott fight showed the world the new champion’s character and personality. There was bad weather and the plane ran low on gas. Walcott’s experience kept Marciano off-balance and sometimes made him look ridiculous. Rocco’s biggest limitation was arms so short they were almost stubby. When he wasn’t playing sports he was running and exercising.

After knocking out an old Joe Louis, Rocky got a title shot. He was famous, successful, and well thought of. 

Everett M. He was undersized for a heavyweight. An obituary in his home state of Massachusetts read:

Rocky was generous with people who were down and out, often giving them unsecured loans that were rarely paid back. He made sure the people who invited him paid for everything.

Russell Sullivan, Rocky Marciano, The Rock of His Times, 2002, University of Illinois Press, Urbana and Chicago.. Rocky hadn’t fought or trained for fourteen years. He would interrupt his training schedule to attend Mass. Rocky seemed too busy to be home.

Far behind on points late in the fight, Rocky needed a knockout to win. Or the estrangement may have developed over Rocky’s running, which may have sprung from a preoccupation with money. Once, as a joke, the reigning sex symbol, Jayne Mansfield, was smuggled into a room where Marciano sat, alone. Lena’s doctor said she could have no more children; this put a fine edge on her concern for Rocco’s health.

He rarely saw his wife and children; or his parents, brothers, and sisters. Stallone credited Chuck Wepner’s losing effort in a fight with Muhammed Ali as the inspiration for the film, yet the similarities of Rocky Balboa to Rocky Marciano are numerous and obvious. 

The answer: Rocky Marciano, heavyweight boxing champion from 1952 to 1956, when at age thirty-three he retired with a perfect record (49-0, with 43 knockouts). Sometimes he would cover his chin and hands with St. His friends said the only thing Rocky was afraid of was being poor. His wife, Barbara, was unable to have the large family Rocky wanted. The nicest thing about being champ, he said, “is that people like you.”  Everyone but boxing experts, who found Rocky’s style too crude to suffer. They all lived in a two bedroom apartment. The pilot had not flown at night before, became confused by the bad weather, and attempted to land in a field rather than the Newton airport. 

He and Lena settled in Brockton, a small city twenty miles south of Boston. The computer’s result: Marciano knocked out Ali in the thirteenth round. Before the fight Marciano met with a priest, who after their meeting said: “That boy is no ordinary prizefighter, he is one of the most dignified, straightforward people I have ever met in my life. Ali complained about his ‘loss’, alleging the computer was made in Alabama. 

Perhaps it was his simplicity that allowed him to retire after beating everyone worth fighting. Augustine before defending his title, and said: “The biggest thrill I could think of would be an audience with the pope?” 

Rocky’s last big payday was a computerized fight with Muhammed Ali in 1969. He even used a coat hanger to stuff money inside curtain rods.

Lena prayed to St. Marciano stepped inside and beat Walcott to the punch with a short right hand that traveled maybe eight inches. Rocco slept in the living room with the windows open, even in the winter, as if in defiance of his bout with pneumonia.

Maybe Rocky ran to avoid an estranged relationship with Barbara. He even had a role in a movie. Rocky never wrote anything down, he tried to keep track of his loans in his head, and sometimes forgot who owed him, and how much. Jude’s oil while in his corner waiting for the start of that fight. 

* * * 

Five months after Marciano’s death “The Superfight” debuted in theaters. Once he hit a man so hard he almost killed him.

The doctor was wrong. He boarded a small, single engine Cessna. Even as champion he came to the ring in a robe bearing the colors of BrocktonHigh School (even though he dropped out in the tenth grade). At the last minute Rocky decided to squeeze in an appearance at a steak house in Des Moines, Iowa. He didn’t trust lawyers or accountants, and preferred to deal in cash. The champion was Jersey Joe Walcott, a ring veteran most experts picked to beat Marciano easily. He was invited to the White House to meet the President. Asked about his reaction when flying shrapnel hit his jaw and snapped off some teeth, Pierino replied, “I just spit them out and kept coming.” 

Rocky ran from an early age. He backed Walcott into the ropes. And Brockton loved him right back, at least in part because many of them became rich betting on Rocky’s fights. 

While sportswriters criticized Marciano’s boxing shortcomings, no one criticized his character, as the following quotes show:

Marciano was “a kind and decent man.”, He was “inherently a decent, righteous and truly wonderful guy…His innate decency and wholesomeness shine through in a dedicated glow.” Or: “We never cease to be amazed at the humility of Rocky Marciano…he treats everyone if they were the celebrity and he the awed little guy.” Another writer called him “probably the humblest of heavyweight champions.”  Said another: “He reminds you of a great, friendly collie …with the grin of a shy fellow happy to be recognized, at last, as a member of the gang in good standing.” He was “the gentlest athlete I have ever known,” and again: “a man of simplicity and sincerity.”

An investigation into the crash of the Cessna in NewtonIowa cited pilot inexperience as the cause of the crash. Anthony for her son’s recovery, promising to give up her diamond engagement ring if Rocco recovered. His fanaticism about physical conditioning,  along with his determination and punching power, led to an unequalled record for a heavyweight champion: forty-nine professional wins, no defeats, forty-three victories by knockout. The pilot and his two passengers were instantly killed. He was awkward in the ring. Yet his retirement years revealed a man who seemed simple, but often was not.

In 1976 Sylvester Stallone began his “Rocky” franchise. Yet even after he had enough money Rocky went after more. After the Rock retired he kept running.

“In this age of the anti-hero and the non-hero, Rocky Marciano was the hero with whom the mass of Americans could readily identify, the hero who surmounted all difficulties by dint of hard work, dedication and perseverance. He  hit his opponents on the break, after the bell, and below the belt. Rocco inherited his father’s toughness, for he survived a deadly bout of pneumonia when he was two. Rocky Marciano was champion.

Marchegiano went to New York and met Al Weill, a boxing manager who tried to Americanize his name. The 1963 issue of Boxing Illustrated claimed: “Marciano’s knockout blow packs more explosive energy than an armour-piercing bullet and represents as much energy as would be required to spot lift 1000 pounds one foot off the ground.”  Although this sort of ‘science’ was probably conducted by zealous Marciano fans, it is undeniably true that Rocky hit really hard.) 

Sources 

As he continued to successfully defend his title, Marciano gradually drew respect from critics. His parents loved opera, ate Italian food, and had wine with dinner. The pilot landed the plane in a field in Newton, Iowa, and rammed into a lone tree in the middle of the field. Rocco refused but eventually he tired of having his name misspelled and mispronounced, and allowed his name to be shortened to Rocky Marciano. He said if the man died he would quit fighting. Anthony before his first title fight, read The Confessions of St. She smoked too, and developed a glandular problem. She and her friends prayed the Rosary at the child’s bedside and waited. He retained his public life, crisscrossing across the country to give speeches, participate in benefits, and conduct business. They had one daughter, but Barbara miscarried when Rocky was away, and wasn’t able to have any more children, although the two did adopt a boy (Rocky Jr.). Several opponents quit boxing after being knocked out by Marciano. Rocky slowly became a better boxer, but it was his punching power that kept him undefeated. There would be good food, a nice check for a few words, and still enough time to fly back for his birthday. Marciano’s body was found pinned beneath the wreckage. Rocky was a brawler. As a boy Rocco was preoccupied with his physical condition. The famous sportswriter Jimmy Cannon observed that Marciano trained “like a man practicing a holy ritual.” Before fights he would slip away to a church or chapel to pray. Rocky always apologized, but the fouling continued.

 Which heavyweight boxing champion in the last century knelt on his knees to pray to St. He would never be a classic boxer, but he worked unceasingly at improving his craft, and trained relentlessly. The man recovered, but never fought again.

(An experiment was performed on Rocky’s punching power. Rocco was in his twenties, when most fighters hit their peak. He usually didn’t pay anything for his cross-country trips: no plane fare, hotel fare, or meals. He knocked out nine of his early opponents in the first round. Barbara missed Rocky, and drank too much. Marciano spent hours at his opponent’s hospital bed, and in church praying for the man’s life. A few minutes later she came out complaining: “What is he, crazy? He didn’t want anything to do with me.” Marciano seemed more comfortable in the company of clergy than actresses. He had no boxing skills. He golfed with priests, helped promote parish functions, even lunched with Cardinal Spellman. Life magazine called him “pure of speech” and “a clean living boy.” He was elsewhere described as “astonishingly innocent,” and “totally without deception, totally without guile.” He didn’t drink or smoke; in fact, when a host at a party for Marciano in Brockton offered the champ a drink, Rocky replied, “If you don’t mind, I’ll take an apple.” 

He was born Rocco Francis Marchegiano (Mark a-jahn-o) on September 1, 1923, the second son (the first died shortly after childbirth) of Pierino and Lena Marchegiano, first generation Italian immigrants who came to America after the first World War. One sportswriter said Marciano brought the “austere, sackcloth-and -ashes approach of a monk” to his training. Although he enjoyed being champion, Marciano remained unchanged. And he could be incredibly tight with a buck


Posted by admin on August 27th, 2016 :: Filed under betting,sports,sports betting

10 tips: Form study (Horse racing)

Once its rating is back to a suitable mark, look for a horse running with conditions to suit for the first time in a while

Your form study shows you that a horse has failed to make the frame on all of its 8 runs on Soft ground, so is it a safe assumption to say that it cannot win on Soft ground today? The answer seems to be probably not of course, but what if all of those runs came when the horse was badly handicapped or the horse was running over an inappropriate trip? Did those earlier runs on Soft ground come in the horse’s early career; is it possible the horse has strengthened up since then? It is very dangerous to assume you can discount a horse from calculations on one parameter, without checking out the facts thoroughly.

Given the first two points it comes as no surprise to find that 4 yo races where there is plenty of form to study are usually far more reliable from a form perspective. Ratings systems do have some merit in older runner races, but are relatively pointless in 2 yo and early season 3 yo races. It is sometimes possible to win with just a summary curse of the formbook, but if you want to obtain consistent results over the long term then it is necessary to become a Form Student. . If the win was achieved ina 2 or 3 yo only race there will almost certainly be unexposed runners who had not reached the peak of their ability.

If you are going to bet on 2yos rather than relying on the formbook, it would be better to concentrate your efforts on Trainers who do well with debutants and those who do well 2nd time out. A young horse having his first race may never have traveled in a horse box before and the racecourse experience can spook an experienced horse that alone one experiencing the sights and sounds of a big crowd.

Never discount a lack of form.

Avoid ratings systems

10 tips: Understanding Form study.

A runner in a Class 4 Handicap may have won in a Class 2 Handicap, but how long ago was the win, are the horse’s best days behind him? Also, if it was say a 0-105 Handicap, what rating was the top rated horse? If the top rated horse was only 90, effectively it is a Class 3 Handicap and not a Class 2. Are his string in decent form, has he had runners in this race before, were they fancied, are there any similarities between runners who have done well in the past? Has the trainer won a couple of previous renewals of the race with decent priced winners? Trainers like Gary Moore and Ian Balding like to have runners at their local tracks.

Carrying on from the previous point, look for a well handicapped horse that has been running over a different trip or on unsuitable ground when it was poorly handicapped. Access to a decent progeny database is a useful tool on extremes of going.

Conclusion:

Never assume.

Look for well Handicapped runners.

Ratings systems such asTurftrax take several known factors (28 in the case of Turftrax) and crunch them through a computer to come up with a top rated runner, which more often than not, is not surprisingly the favourite.

Form study can be profitable, but it is often misleading and difficult to read, like anything else in life, the more seriously you study it, the better the results.

Horses are not machines, they cannot tell a computer if they are injured or unwell or just not in the mood for a 3 mile slog in the mud today. Have a look at the form of the Classy win, has it worked out or did it prove to be a weak race for the grade?

Avoid Juvenile races.

Be wary of freak results

Concentrate on Older horses.

Be Wary of races with unexposed 3 yo runners entered.

Runners returning from a long break, especially 2 and 3 yos, have the ability to show drastic improvement on what they have previously shown on the book. It should therefore come as no surprise that the youngsters are skittish and can use up a lot of nervous energy before their debut race. If a horse wins a race as a 2 yo the official handicapper often over reacts and gives a horse an unrealistic Handicap mark in what turns out to be a weak race, virtually wiping out its chances of winning as a 3 yo. The first thing to understand is that a win in a certain grade or class is not always as meritorious as it may seem at first glance. As a consequence they are extremely well handicapped and often run up long winning sequences as 3 yos when upped to an appropriate trip

The theory also falls down on other counts. Northern form tends to be weaker than races at the major Southern courses, as does early season form. Once again look for trainers whose runners improve after a break at certain times of the year and keep an eye on the market for confidence in the horse.

You can make racing pay from formbook study, but it is hard work and don’t let anyone else tell you otherwise.

If you fancy a runner take a look at the way the trainer operates. The connections will then place the horse in a race where the conditions play to its strengths and if you can identify such a horse it may be better to get your money on early as the price will often contract before the off if the connections have a decent bet on the horse.

Is it any wonder then that certain trainers will look to the future and run their juveniles three times when the horse isn’t fully wound up or running over an inappropriate distance? This way the horse has a better chance of being well handicapped as a 3 yo as the handicapper may realise what is going on, but can only rate a horse on the evidence of what he has seen on the track. Sadly this premise is flawed on several levels. By concentrating on 4 yo plus races you by and large, eliminate the element of surprise as all or most of the runners are exposed.

One punter I know used to believe in backing “The Class horse” in the race in the belief that if it had won in a better Class of race than the other runners it was the one to follow as the cream would come to the top. They also do not factor in such circumstances as to whether a horse was badly hampered, given a poor ride by the jockey or chose the wrong strip of ground, etc. Juveniles having theirsecond run often improve beyond all recognition and understandably so; a view also taken by the stewards.

Hopefully, the following 10 tips will help to improve your form reading:

Runners who are currently rated 7lb lower than their best winning weight in a Handicap can be said to be “Well in at the weights” and have a good chance of winning, given the right conditions.

Information is power and in the early part of the season in particular.On many occasions you won’t have much more information in a 3 yo race than in a 2 yo race and the information available may be seriously misleading. Once again the form book often goes out of the window with 3 yo horses; shocking as it may seem, some trainers don’t want their horses to win as 2 yos. As with any other form of learning you will only improve with a great deal of effort and study along with a sprinkling of good luck, As the old saying goes though “The harder I work the luckier I seem to get”

The first step in trying to find the winner of a race should be to eliminate the runners you believe cannot win and to leave yourself with a shortlist of runners that can win.

Look for improving horses.

Look for trainer Trends. If a horse is poorly Handicapped a trainer will often run it over unsuitable circumstances in an effort to get it well Handicapped and heaven forbid the trainer may not have the horse 100% fit or may instruct the jockey to take it out wide or ride it down the unfavoured strip of ground. I’ve also yet to meet a ratings computer in the paddock, telling me how well a horse looked before a race.

Don’t be afraid of a row of duck eggs; just because a horse has run poorly for its last 6 or 7 races, does not necessarily mean it has lost its form or cannot win on the day. There will be few springers and certain 3yo plus Handicaps are also fine as long as there aren’t any 3 yo runners who have only had a couple of races.

2 year old form, especially in the early months of the season is extremely unreliable. Look for trainers who operate this way;Sir Mark Prescott is the master; he runs his 2 yos who are bred for longer middle distance races over 5 or 6 furlongs, knowing they have no chance of winning given their breeding. The Hilary Needler is the 2nd listed 2 yo race of the season and the winner of the race is entitled to the prestigious “Black Type” thoroughbreds crave to improve their stud value. However the race is a Listed race in name only and very few of the past winner have gone on to win further Black Type races. It is vital to check that the trip, going and type of course suit the horse; especially if the horse is a Course specialist and most importantly that the winning rating was in the near past, not 3 or 4 years ago


Posted by admin on August 26th, 2016 :: Filed under horses bet,horses betting