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Beatingthe House Edge In Casino 3 Card Brag

So, in order to be profitable, you have to determine which hands will return more than 18,424 times your basic stake if played 18,424 hands or – in other words – which have an expected value of 0.50 and above.

Mathematically, these odds equate to a house edge of 2.02% based on all possible combinations of cards being dealt to the player and dealer, and the total payback the player receives (frequency of winning hands x odds of return) divided by the total number of possible hands. The maths is as follows-

You need to be aware that some casinos and online web sites offering 3 Card Brag games against the house will switch the ante bonuses between a prial and a running flush. Playbrag.com, all about brag online!

Rather than going through all 18,424 combinations, we have done the homework for you, and have found the bottom line at Q-6-4 (unsuited).

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Check our site if you want to find out where to play 3 card brag online, to read more about 3 card brag strategy or just for learning the 3 card brag rules. All you need to know to beat the house edge in casino 3 Card Brag is what hands offer an expected value where, on level stakes, you will be profitable overall.

There are 5747 combinations where the dealer will fail to qualify, your “play” stake is returned and your ante doubled – giving you a return of £17,241.00 – and 26 possible ways of making a tie (not 27 because of the one chance that the dealer can make a Q-6-4 flush against your rainbow Q-6-4), returning £78.00.

Add these three returns up (£18,539.00) and divide by the total amount you will have to pay in antes and “play” stakes (£36,848.00) over 18.424 hands and your expected value is 50.30%.

As well as being able to play 3 Card Brag against the house online, a number of live casinos have also introduced 3 Card Brag into their portfolio of table games.

Muck Your Jacks to Beat the House

It makes sense to fold on any hand which is Jack high or lower, because if the dealer qualifies you are going to lose and the only benefit to you is if the dealer fails to qualify (and you double your ante). This is because there is a greater chance of a prial being dealt (52/22.100) than a running flush (48/22.100) and it makes a slight difference to your expected value, but not enough to warrant changing your minimum starting hand.

To get to this figure, you start by working out that after your three cards have been dealt, there a are possible 18,424 hands which can be dealt to the dealer (49*48*47)/(3*2*1). Whereas most online 3 Card Brag games have a standard payout structure with a house edge of just over 2%, some live casinos modify their payout structure to improve the edge in their favour.

To ensure that you get the best possible return to your 3 Card Brag stakes, you should only use an online or live casino which is offering the following ante odds (or better!) –

Prial (or Three of a Kind) 5/1

Running (Straight) Flush 4/1

Run (Straight) 1/1 – or “Evens”

Furthermore, some sites and casinos will also have a different hand ranking structure to standard 3 Card Brag games, and make A-A-A the best hand, rather than 3-3-3. A Q-K-A run or running flush will also dominate an A-2-3 run, and although these changes will make no difference to beating the house edge in casino 3 Card Brag, it is always in your best interests to ensure you are familiar with the rules before you sit down to play.

By: Scott Powell

The same calculation made on the hand Q-6-3 {(£1,084.00 + £17,241.00 + £78.00)/£36,848.00) gives an expected value of 49.94%.

Happy Bragging!. The hands between Jack high and Q-6-4 represent the 2.02% edge that the house has in casino 3 Card Brag, and if you muck those also, you eliminate their percentage provided the ante bonus odds are no worse than those listed above.

Queen – Six – Four are the Magic Numbers

If you are playing Q-6-4, there are 305 combinations of cards that the dealer can have which will enable him to qualify and still lose to you – giving you a return of £1,220.00 (to a £1.00 unit stake).

3 Card Brag Expected Value

Confused? You don’t have to be


Posted by admin on July 15th, 2015 :: Filed under Uncategorized
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